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Germany – Capex cycle unfazed by political uncertainty
We have lifted our GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 about half a point to 2.
We have lifted our GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 about half a point to 2.3%, as capex is boosted by an improved export outlook, which in turn is driven by the global capex cycle. The difficult formation of a new government – while not encouraging with regard to Germany’s longer-term challenges – should have limited impact on the short-term outlook. [more]
Since the height of the financial crisis at the end of 2008, the use of different debt finance instruments by companies in the euro area has been diverging remarkably: whereas the outstanding volume of traditional bank loans has fallen by about EUR 360 bn on aggregate (-7.4%), net issuance of corporate bonds (i.e. long-term debt securities) has amounted to almost exactly the same cumulative (but positive) figure over the same period of time (a rise by 63%). [more]
Over the past ten years banks in Germany attracted over EUR 900 bn in new deposits from German households and businesses. This increased the market volume by nearly 50% vis-à-vis 2002. Today, public-sector banks hold 37% of total deposits, commercial banks one-third and cooperative banks roughly 20%. [more]
For the first time in at least a decade, all major revenue components at the 20 largest European banks declined simultaneously. Apart from trading income (-24%), the decrease was modest (interest income -0.5%, fees & commissions -1%) yet the looming challenge for banks’ business models has finally become crystal clear: there is no obvious driver for future growth. [more]
Last year, banks provided new syndicated loans of a gross global total of USD 1.6 tr, a drop by 41% yoy, following a similar decline in 2008 already. New lending thus reached a 10-year low, despite having doubled between 2003 and 2007... [more]
The global banking system has undergone a fundamental shift of power for years – away from traditionally dominating financial institutions from the US, Europe and Japan towards banks in the emerging markets. [more]
In modern economies the financial industry is one of the most important sectors. In terms of gross value-added, it ranks third in Germany for example, even ahead of mechanical and electrical engineering. [more]