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What’s in the tails? Why the coming recession will be worse than expected

April 27, 2022

What’s in the tails? Why the coming recession will be worse than expected

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid, Peter Hooper
PDF 144k
We are undergoing a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. Consensus forecasts have been consistently wrong over the last decade, and over the last couple of years alone they underestimated the scale of the pandemic rebound, the inflationary impact of the stimulus packages, and the fact they weren’t transitory. [more]

More documents about "International"

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Video: Gap Factor Premium

August 18, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Blaz Zlicar
dbInSights - public
111
July saw a notable rebound in equity and bond markets – albeit perhaps counterintuitively, given how initially worse economic data had sparked expectations of a dovish Fed pivot. But then investors had to adjust expectations again, after July employment numbers suggested that the Fed may stay on course. According to Blaz Zlicar, markets will continue to be in a state of flux: inflation vs growth. He says “That is the name of the game these days”. Watch this video for more. [more]

Q&A with Mallika Sachdeva

July 28, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Mallika Sachdeva
Q&A with
112
In a new ‘Q&A with’ Mallika Sachdeva, Asia Macro Strategist, introduces a newly launched Deutsche Bank’s Asia Corporate Newsletter, what market environments corporates are likely to face in the coming quarter and what the longer-term themes most pressing for corporates are. [more]

Stablecoins and DeFi: Passing the test

July 19, 2022
Region:
International
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Digital
Analyst:
Heike Mai
Talking Point
114
Stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem have taken a hard hit recently. However, the current stress for cryptos caused by tighter monetary policy may reveal which services offer real value for customers. In fact, leading collateral-backed stablecoins have weathered the storm quite well. The ecosystem will probably face further losses but emerge consolidated and well positioned for continued growth. [more]

Is the US already in a recession?

July 15, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti
Podzept (Podcast series)
115
Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on. [more]

Q&A with Matthew Luzzetti

July 11, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Matthew Luzzetti
Q&A with
116
In a new ‘Q&A with’ Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights on whether the US Economy is already in a recession, and if it isn’t when one is expected and how the Fed is likely to respond to the conflicting signals from inflation and growth. [more]

Video: Academic Insights

July 7, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Caio Natividade
dbInSights - public
118
The quant team's 'Academic Insights' report discusses the most relevant, recently published academic papers on various topics related to quantitative investing as sourced by Deutsche Bank Research analysts. The latest edition, which features over 70 studies and podcasts, includes climate research, digital assets, intangibles, inflation, tail risk hedging and diversification. Watch this latest video with Caio Natividade to find out what stands out. [more]

M&A, Resilience amidst a slowdown

June 20, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Corporate Bank Research
121
With a tumultuous first half of 2022 almost over, we are making a contrarian call for the second half. Specifically, we believe that although M&A will slow compared with last year, it will be more resilient than the drop so far in 2022 would suggest. To support this, we have identified several post-covid themes that are motivating corporates and private capital to make acquisitions. [more]
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