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Regional elections and beyond: The trend is Green

March 15, 2021

Regional elections and beyond: The trend is Green

Region:
Germany
Germany Blog
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher
PDF 189k
In yesterday’s regional elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), the CDU achieved disappointing results and thus faces a dismal start into this election year. The CDU was up against two extremely popular prime ministers who appeal to voters across the political camps. However, nondescript CDU candidates, allegations around mask procurement deals and growing discontent about pandemic management are behind the heavy defeats. The new CDU party leader Armin Laschet was not able to change the party’s fortunes. Nevertheless, Laschet’s chances for Merkel’s succession remain intact, in our view. While another six months until federal elections is a long time in politics, the state elections serve as a reminder that a conservative-green coalition which is the consensus so far, is not a foregone conclusion. With Merkel’s bonus for the CDU/CSU fading, vaccine problems continuing and the surprising revival of the Liberals, other coalition options for the Greens might open up. [more]

More documents about "Germany"

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German office market: Traditional office will remain at the centre of economic activity

June 17, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg
Focus Germany
71
The demand for office space will be largely shaped by the development of home office over the decade. There is no doubt that remote work has the potential to reduce demand for office space substantially and uncertainty remains unusually high. But our projections show that even with a strong expansion of home office, demand for office space could remain high. We continue to expect that the traditional office will remain the hub of economic life. [more]

Greens’ convention – closing the ranks but little new impetus

June 14, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Marion Mühlberger
Germany Blog
72
For the Greens, the goal of leading the next government seems to have become harder to reach over the last couple of weeks as polls suggest a certain disenchantment of the electorate with the party and its frontrunner. We do not expect the just approved election manifesto (more left than centre) to provide them with enough momentum to switch back into offensive mode in the election campaign. Still, the Greens can still regain momentum over the next few months, for example due to a hot summer, the resurgence of climate protests and a public perception that change is a precondition to modernization. [more]

Insights from corporate Germany on key election topics

June 14, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Marion Mühlberger
Focus Germany
73
What is corporate Germany’s view on key election topics? A conservative-green government would be a novelty in German coalition history. Ahead of this critical political and economic juncture a lot is at stake for German corporates (e.g. energy prices in the context of climate policies, exit from state support, active industrial policy). Our proprietary survey offers unique insights into what 200 German companies are thinking. [more]

Midyear review: Real economy on track, but higher inflation

June 10, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
74
Q2 GDP should be o.k., despite April’s little stumble. Strong external demand and depleted finished goods inventories suggest a strong bounce back once current supply constraints ease. Consumers’ economic outlook and income expectations are improving. Together with an expected normalization of the savings rate that should provide a strong underpinning for consumption growth. We stick to our Q2 GDP forecast of close to 2% qoq and 4% for the whole year. The rate of inflation has been rising sharply since the start of 2021. With price dynamics continuing to outstrip expectations and given the prospect of stronger economic recovery in the summer, we now expect the annual average CPI inflation rate to rise to 2.8% in 2021, monthly numbers could even touch 4%. [more]

State elections: Eyes peeled for AfD’s scoring, little impact on federal race

June 2, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Marion Mühlberger
Germany Blog
76
Next Sunday’s regional election in the small eastern German state Saxony-Anhalt is the last electoral test in the run-up to the federal election in September. Polls suggest that the CDU will remain the strongest political force, despite being challenged by the right-wing AfD. Even a narrow win would be a positive for the CDU’s federal campaign. Whereas an AfD victory would be a (non-lethal) blow for Laschet’s election campaign. The federal election campaign is just heating up. The electorate seems a little disenchanted with Greens and their chancellor candidate, allowing the Conservatives to regain the lead in the neck-and-neck race in the polls. Still, the two parties are polling too close to speak of a turning point (yet). [more]

Climate change ruling by the German Federal Constitutional Court: Calling for technological progress

May 11, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Sectors and resources, Sustainability
Analyst:
Eric Heymann
Talking Point
77
The Federal Constitutional Court's "climate change order" has the potential to trigger considerable political and social disruption. The greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by policymakers will have implications for our everyday lives. Political and social resistance appears inevitable. We need better climate technologies. Better technology is key if we want to keep climate-related restrictions to individual freedom as well as political and social tensions as low as possible, both now and in the future. Perhaps we should regard the Court order as a call for much higher investments in research and development. [more]

Economy ready for take-off – election polls hanging in the balance

May 7, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
78
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. Given the slightly smaller than expected drop of Q1 GDP (-1.7%) and upward revisions to H2 2020, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2021 from 3.7% to 4.0%. Meanwhile election polls are hanging firmly in the balance. The nominations of Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet as chancellor candidates have clearly helped the Greens to gain ground. The current shift in voters’ sentiment allows for a whole bunch of coalition options. [more]

Tipping the scales in a tight election – post-Covid boom to come just in time?

May 4, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Marion Mühlberger, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
79
Given the magnitude of the recent spike/fall in polls for the Greens/Conservatives, we were asking ourselves, whether such a spike might be a one-off and if approval rates are going to mean-revert any time soon? Looking at historical episodes of spikes in voter preferences indeed shows that most of the time, approval rates tended to (partly) mean revert after a couple of weeks. Still, the Greens clearly stand out with four out of the five most recent spikes working in their favour (hot and dry summer seasons '18 &'19, Fridays for Future movement, and disappointment with Covid measures). Where does that leave us with respect to the tight race in September? [more]

Working from home potential only half fulfilled in Germany. Is there a productivity paradox?

April 28, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg
Talking Point
80
We compare the current debate with the discussion about the introduction of the computer in the 1980s. Then as now, positive and negative effects on a macroeconomic level could almost cancel each other out at first. Accordingly, we anticipate that the question of productivity is only likely to be answered in some years’ time. [more]

German rent cap: Probably only under a green-red-red federal government (which seems unlikely) – but even then, water would still not flow uphill

April 19, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Germany's super election year 2021, Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Talking Point
81
After Berlin's rent cap was declared unconstitutional by the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany is discussing the consequences. Will there be a nationwide rent cap after the federal election in September? This is one of the most frequent and potentially most important questions for many landlords and tenants. [more]
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