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The Taps Still Tightening

February 10, 2023

The Taps Still Tightening

Region:
International
The House View - Snapshot
Analyst:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
PDF 308k
After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]

More documents about "International"

401 (31-42)
    

Can AI help high-labour firms to boost returns?

May 30, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Podzept (Podcast series)
31
Artificial intelligence offers the tantalising prospect of improving the perennial underperformance of companies with many employees.

In this podcast, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Adrian Cox discuss why high-staff companies tend to have a lower market capitalisation, thinner margins and lower growth rates than lower-staff ones. They analyse evidence that suggests AI could enable high-employee companies to get more value from each staff member. That may generate an outsize benefit in return on equity and potentially catalyse equity market returns in the years to come. [more]

Video: Why dbResearch is focusing on AI and chatbots

May 25, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
dbInSights - public
32
Artificial Intelligence has been a sizzling hot topic since ChatGPT was launched at the end of November. For once, the hype may be (almost) justified. At Deutsche Bank Research, we thought it was time to take a step back to give a clear perspective for investors and businesses, and to dig into what the latest flavour of AI, Generative AI, will really mean for our future. [more]

Can AI save high-labour firms?

May 24, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Thematic Research
34
Companies with a large number of employees have a big problem. Quite simply, they fail to extract as much value from each staff member as do low-staff firms. Indeed, labour-intense firms tend to have a lower market cap, thinner margins, and lower growth rates.
AI may be the way forward. In this piece, we argue that AI will make workers more productive, particularly in high-staff firms. The reason is that the profitability of high-staff firms has the highest leverage to the performance of their labour force. AI will help upskill them and streamline repetitive and mundane tasks that are more prevalent in high-staff companies. [more]

Generative AI and ChatGPT 101

May 23, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
Thematic Research
35
Next week will mark six months since the launch of ChatGPT, the chatbot based on OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 large language model. There has been an extraordinary flurry of launches, hype and activity since then. Even in the past week, OpenAI, Google and Meta announced fresh products, OpenAI’s CEO testified in Congress, and the G7 called for “guardrails” on AI, among many other developments. [more]

Video: Traditional Value and Quality investing

May 22, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Clayton Gillespie
dbInSights - public
36
Traditional Value and Quality investing is well understood, but how well does it translate to financial firms? In this video analyst Clayton Gillespie discusses the quant team’s latest research, which uses accounting, valuation and corporate finance insights to generate appropriate alphas for financial firms. Together they generate Value and Quality strategies that exhibit robust through-cycle behaviour and combine well with Value and Quality factors in the rest of the universe. [more]

Generative AI represents a turning point for humanity - for better and for worse

May 22, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau
Thematic Research
38
The AI hype cycle is in overdrive. It feels like the volume of text generated by ChatGPT over the past six months has almost been matched by the volume of hyperbole about how foundation models will change the world. For once the hype is (mostly) justified. Generative AI is not another metaverse or, for that matter, another crypto currency. But it will change the world – for better and for worse. [more]

Video: Deutsche Bank’s Chief US Economist breaks down the FOMC meeting

May 4, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Matthew Luzzetti
dbInSights - public
42
As usual, all eyes were on the Federal Reserve when it met on interest rates Wednesday. But unlike other meetings over the past year, there was a different twist this time: has the central bank reached the end of rate increases after an aggressive tightening cycle? Please watch Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti break down the decision, and path forward, with our Americas communications head Brian Blackstone. [more]
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