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Shipwrecked

September 29, 2022
Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]

More documents about "International"

371 (31-42)
February 21, 2023
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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace is a Thematic Research Analyst. In our "Q&A with…" series she discusses the highlights from the most recent edition of The House View Snapshot – including its AI generated cover image. She also shares her favourite experience since joining the Deutsche Bank Graduate programme last year. [more]
February 15, 2023
32
With all eyes on the Federal Reserve and US economy in 2023 consumer price index report for January garnered a lot of interest. Watch Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, analyze the inflation data and its implications for the economy and monetary policy. [more]
February 10, 2023
33
After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]
February 8, 2023
Analyst:
34
Protecting your portfolio with confidence: Our Quant team just released a report on using vanilla put options to hedge against tail risk. From measurement to portfolio construction, we cover all the key aspects of successful portfolio protection. See this new video with Ganchi Zhang. Learn more by reaching out to your db sales representative. [more]
February 2, 2023
35
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by 0.25 percentage point. Please watch Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist, and Brian Blackstone, head of communications for the Americas, break down the decision and press conference. [more]
January 23, 2023
37
A recent report by DB Quant Research provides an outlook for 2023, analyzing the performance of different quant strategies from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Utilizing scenario analysis, the report highlights which styles within equity long-short, trend following, systematic global macro and relative value are expected to perform in 2023. [more]
January 23, 2023
Analyst:
38
The energy crisis has been the biggest economic story of the last year. In a new video James Brand, Head of European Utilities looks at how consumers are managing. What has affected energy prices over the past few months and does the future hold better news? [more]
January 20, 2023
Analyst:
39
2022 was a tough, roller-coaster year for the global automotive sector. So how is the sector holding up and what could 2023 bring? Even though the global economy is heading into recession, led by the US, inflation remains a drag, and semiconductor availability is still expected to limit output, Tim Rokossa and his team expect the Auto outlook in the EU to develop somewhat differently to the US.

In this new video, Tim highlights five key trends that could shape the sector in the year ahead. [more]
January 12, 2023
40
House prices are cooling off around the world after the boom years of historically low interest rates and a pandemic race for space. Countries like Sweden, Canada and Australia, which had the biggest gains, heaviest household debt and highest proportion of variable rate mortgages, are most exposed. In the latest episode of Podzept, Michael Hsueh, FX Strategist and author of the G10 Housing Monitor, Jon Bell, Head of the European Construction and House Building Research, and Adrian Cox, Thematic Strategist, discuss the outlook. [more]
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