Why a car-scrapping bonus is not a good idea

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The government’s coffers are not bottomless. That is why any money spent on cushioning the impact of the corona crisis should be used as efficiently as possible to achieve the maximum positive impact or compensate for the damage caused by the lockdown. Unlike other sectors, such as hotels or restaurants, car producers in Germany were and are not directly affected by the lockdown. Car dealers have re-opened. Moreover, a car-scrapping bonus scheme will cause customers to bring forward purchases, with sales declining in the following year. In addition, high-wage earners in particular will benefit from the financial windfall. Car sales in Germany play only a limited role for German carmakers’ overall profitability. And finally, subsidies for e-cars already provide an incentive to include environmental considerations in car-buying decisions. [more]

Deutsche Fassung ➜

Corona crisis diverts touristsʹ travel routes

July 1, 2020

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During the corona summer, Germans will probably travel less and for shorter periods of time than in former years. Destinations in Germany and in the neighbouring countries, which are only a car journey away, look set to benefit. In contrast, European holiday destinations which are usually reached by plane will see the number of tourists decline in 2020. Spain will probably be the main loser. Long-distance travel will not play a major role in 2020. The cruise boom is likely to come to an abrupt end. In 2020, the total amount spent by Germans abroad is likely to decline by 10-20%. Once the coronavirus crisis is over, climate and environmental regulation (in particular for the transport sector) will return as the main structural challenge for tourism. [more]

Sounding out the Q2 GDP slump

June 26, 2020

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Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

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Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider

Sectors and resources, Sustainability

How deep is your trough? Daily activity trackers suggest that the economy turned at the end of April as lockdown measures were gradually lifted. But we still expect a double-digit decline in Q2 GDP. The EUR 130 bn fiscal package was somewhat above our earlier expectations but does not change our GDP forecast, especially as still-prevailing pandemic uncertainties might curtail the economic impact of the package. But upside risks to our -9% GDP forecast for 2020 have (somewhat) increased. (Also in this issue: corona pandemic update, German public finances, global trade, German tourism during the corona crisis, German politics goes European) [more]

Corona crisis and climate change: New technology is what we need

May 14, 2020

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International

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Public attention has shifted away from climate change as the coronavirus pandemic has spread. Nevertheless, mitigating climate change and making sure that the growing global population has access to climate-friendly energy remain among the key challenges of this century. These issues will still be on the agenda when the pandemic is over. It is therefore an encouraging sign that many policymakers and corporates have said they will not only take into account, but pay more attention to climate protection when re-opening the economy. The heated discussion about which instruments are best suited to ensure climate protection will continue for years to come, though. [more]

Honey, we shrank our economy!

May 8, 2020

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Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

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Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider

Weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data point to a lower trough in economic activity than assumed so far. We now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% qoq, with the risks still skewed to the downside. In the 2009 recession, private consumption acted as a massive shock absorber. Given the lockdown, social distancing and a likely severe hit to income expectations, we expect private consumption to fall by 10% in 2020. The asynchronous global development of the COVID-19 pandemic and lasting impediments to global trade, will make the recovery, which began in May and will become more evident in H2, less dynamic than hoped for earlier. As a result, we expect German GDP to decline by 9% this year and to expand by about 4% in 2021. [more]

German industry: Coronavirus crisis distracts from structural problems

May 5, 2020

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Economic and european policy, Sectors and resources

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Germany Monitor

Due to the coronavirus, production in the manufacturing sector in Germany is expected to fall by roughly 10% to 15% in real terms in 2020. Society and business will learn to live with the coronavirus and weigh up health, social and economic risks in the process. In 2021, industrial production could rise by more than 10% in real terms on average over the course of the year. However, overall we see a risk that Germany may become less attractive as an industrial location over the coming years. Policymakers and industrial companies are likely to view the crisis surrounding the coronavirus as an opportunity to make important political decisions and get structural reforms off the ground, as they should. [more]

Mechanical engineering sector feels the effects of the coronavirus

April 15, 2020

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Josef Auer

The coronavirus pandemic has struck the German mechanical engineering sector at an already difficult time. Since 2019 at the latest, mechanical engineering firms have been feeling the effects of a realignment in the industry, particularly as German automobile manufacturers shift towards electric mobility. On top of that, there was the possibility of unusual expenses due to the potential discontinuation of deliveries from China amid ongoing trade conflicts. Production may decline by 25% or more in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus. [more]

Coronavirus: A threat to the business of traditional tourist destinations

April 6, 2020

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Europe

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The corona pandemic and the related travel restrictions and lockdowns have caused both domestic and cross-border travel to collapse. All types of transport are affected. If the lockdowns remain in place over the summer months, traditional tourist destinations, for example on the Mediterranean, will suffer major economic losses. [more]

Under corona siege - Update

March 18, 2020

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Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

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Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider

Corona recession – depth probably close to 2009 slump. Within days lock-down measures and (temporary) factory closures have reached a level that suggests a far bigger H1 contraction than previously thought. In our new baseline scenario we expect GDP to decline between 4% and 5% in 2020, notwithstanding a recovery in H2, as – in contrast to 2009 – the service sector will be hard hit, too. (Also in this issue: the German government's support measures, labour market, industrial recession, auto industry, corporate lending, the view from Berlin) [more]

German auto industry: Output in China exceeds domestic production

March 9, 2020

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Chart in Focus

In 2019, German carmakers produced significantly more cars in China than at home. China remains by far the most important foreign production site for the German auto industry. While foreign production is likely to rise further, recent development of domestic production gives cause for concern. [more]

Still highly fragile

February 10, 2020

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Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources

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Analyst:

Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider

After very weak December data a small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Looking forward, the coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy. We assume that the corona outbreak will shave off 0.2pp of Germany's Q1 GDP, making a technical recession quite probable during the winter half. [more]

Prosperous countries – high CO₂-emissions

January 27, 2020

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International

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Chart in Focus

A country’s prosperity is still closely linked to its energy consumption. As 80% of the global energy consumed is based on fossil fuels, high prosperity (measured as GDP per capita) tends to imply high per-capita CO₂ emissions. France is the G20 country which is closest to the goal of being quite prosperous on the one hand and keeping its per-capita carbon emissions relatively low on the other. Nevertheless, France is far from being a climate-neutral economy (which is the political goal). [more]

E-mobility: Remaining a niche phenomenon for now – at least without subsidies

January 9, 2020

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