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CDU’s Covid-19 election bonus – from hero to zero

March 31, 2021
Region:
Merkel’s Conservatives currently face major problems. Approval rates are in free fall as trust in the government’s crisis management has eroded. The CDU/CSU is polling at pre-crisis levels of below 30% fuelling speculation that not only Merkel but the Conservatives in total might not be part of the next government. The announcement of their chancellor candidate is unlikely to turn the tide for the Conservatives. A bold election manifesto on how to bring Germany forward after the deficiencies revealed by the crisis combined with convincing core personal are needed. Coalition options are back in focus with the Greens being the kingmakers in all scenarios. The political talk of the day is a Green-led traffic light coalition also at the federal level. Still, a conservative-green government remains our baseline scenario, but it is not a foregone conclusion anymore. [more]

More documents from Marion Mühlberger

18 (13-18)
March 10, 2021
Region:
13
On March 14, regional elections in Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP) will provide the first electoral test for the parties in the run-up to the federal elections. Polls see the ruling Greens in BW, respectively the SPD in RP in the lead, but uncertainty about the polls is higher this time given the fallout from the pandemic. Additional headwinds for the CDU result from a current political outrage over questionable procurement deals of two CDU/CSU Bundestag MPs. The new CDU party leader Laschet is not up for election but the performance of the CDU will of course be (partly) attributed to him. However, as long as the CDU is not experiencing a severe setback compared to its 2016 results, Laschet’s chances of being nominated as the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate remains intact in our view. [more]
March 9, 2021
Region:
14
At the onset of this decisive election year, Germany finds itself confronted with an increasingly multipolar world, a weakened liberal, rule-based world order and rapid technological change. By applying the concept of a SWOT analysis, we aim at kicking off a debate about possible trajectories for the German economy in the post-Merkel era. As key threats to Germany’s "business model" (export-driven with a strong innovative industrial base), we identify (i) a continued erosion of the liberal rule-based trading and investment order and (ii) the falling behind in the global tech race with respect to Green-tech, AI and IoT. By plotting these two threats on separate axes, we then develop four scenarios and identify key drivers that will define Germany‘s position on these axes. For the new government complacency or reactive policies are no options – "High-Tech Made in Germany" might turn out to be an upside scenario. Strong reform effort of both the government and corporate sector is needed in order to secure Germany’s place in the "best-of-all-worlds" scenario. This requires a proper allocation of R&D investments, reaping the benefits of industrial data and an accelerated diffusion of cross-sectoral technologies like AI. [more]
January 18, 2021
Region:
15
Winning 53% of delegates’ votes, Armin Laschet - the PM of NRW and Merkel loyalist - secured a slim majority in the run-off for the CDU party leadership on Saturday. This does not come as a surprise, as Laschet was widely seen as the candidate with a small lead in a tight race. In the end, having most governing experience and a track record of winning elections probably tipped the scale in favour of Laschet (e.g. the former SPD stronghold NWR in 2017). Being well-connected within the CDU also paid off for him. However, with a mere difference of 55 votes this is no landslide victory, though still a clearer win for the Merkel camp than AKK’s 17-vote win over Merz in 2018. The slim majority is a reflection of the existing divisions within the party, leaving Laschet with the task of bridging those as soon as possible in this decisive super-election year. Norbert Röttgen (coming third in the election) quickly signalled support for Armin Laschet and was elected to the CDU’s steering committee. [more]
June 26, 2015
16
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) increased sharply in the decade up to 2013, prior to a significant decline in 2014 and Q1 2015 against the backdrop of the Russia crisis. In terms of size the market is small in an international comparison, and concentration in certain countries and sectors is large. Macro stability and adequate legal rights are important factors for market development, and a large and diversified source of demand is a key ingredient. Pension system counter-reforms in CEE may be counterproductive in this respect. [more]
April 24, 2014
Region:
17
On May 1, 2004, eight CEE countries joined the European Union, followed by Bulgaria and Romania in January 2007. Strong trade, investment and monetary integration with the EU have been the cornerstone of the successful economic catch-up story of those economies which started much earlier than actual accession. Ten years and a textbook boom-bust cycle later, the CEE-10 have witnessed not only the benefits but also the drawbacks of such strong trade and financial integration. Still, we expect high and rising trade openness and strong integration in European manufacturing value chains will continue to support the CEE-10 industry-based growth model. [more]
July 31, 2009
18
Despite the impact of the global crisis and periodic bouts of political turmoil, the theme of an African economic renaissance is not likely to vanish. Due to Sub-Saharan Africa's rich natural resource endowment, macro/structural improvements and increasing trade links with Asia we expect economic growth to rebound to the 5%-level over the next years. Thus, once the world economy recovers, interest in African frontier capital markets is set to rise again. While Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya are the most prominent countries in terms of size and capital-market development, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia have strong potential as well. [more]
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