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Is disinflation different this time around?

July 26, 2023
Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. In their recent US Economic Perspectives report, Deutsche Bank Research attempts to answer the question: Recession or soft landing: Is disinflation different this time? [more]

More documents contained in "Thematic Research"

161 Documents
January 16, 2024
3
Bitcoin surged to a 21-month high last week, surpassing $47,000, a level not seen since April 2022. At the same time, the SEC made a landmark ruling in favour of the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last Wednesday, the regulator approved 11 such applications by major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity Investments. Trading has already begun, with the first ETFs listed last Thursday. [more]
January 12, 2024
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Indonesia has made impressive progress over the past few quarters in correcting the cyclical imbalances from the boom-bust pattern of the pandemic years. Both headline and core inflation have normalized; fiscal performance has surpassed expectations; and the trade surplus - while narrowing - has remained well supported by high commodity prices and mineral down-streaming efforts. The rupiah was one of the best-performing currencies in the region in 2023. [more]
December 15, 2023
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There will be varying degrees of opinion regarding the success of COP28, the first global stocktake summit after the Paris Agreement (2015). Ultimately, it was fascinating to experience the event considering the backdrop of Dubai and the leadership style of the UAE, a nation with roots in oil but a stated ambition to achieve net zero and increase its renewable energy capacity. [more]
December 13, 2023
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Two big ideas – geopolitics and corporate uncertainty – pervade all the key themes that we present as our top ten for 2024. We elevate these two mega-themes as they are the key drivers underlying much corporate and investment decision making in the new year. [more]
December 5, 2023
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It has been a brutal two years for dealmaking. Following the M&A boom of 2021, the value and volume of deals remains well below historical averages in the US and Europe. Yet, we see 2024 as a year of recovery for M&A activity, and there are three key themes we believe will catalyse it: 1. Eager buyers and valuation dislocations, 2. The need for large firms to supplement declining organic profit growth, 3. Greater certainty in the financing backdrop. [more]
November 28, 2023
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In our World Outlook for 2024, we outline how we’ve had a fairly consistent macro narrative over the past 2 3 years and we continue to see this as a classic policy led boom bust cycle that will culminate in a US recession. Ultimately, the impact of rapid rate hikes are yet to take effect in full, and QT is still continuing in the background. That will make early 2024 a challenging environment, and we expect a mild US recession in H1 2024. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we think that a mild recession has already begun that will stretch into the start of 2024. [more]
October 24, 2023
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Konnichwa! We spent most of our first week of October at this year’s Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) Conference held in Tokyo, Japan (Oct 4-6th). This event is one of the leading global sustainability conferences as it attracts influential asset owners, leading asset managers, regulators and industry professionals. Our Top 8 takeaways below are based on insights from conference panels we attended and discussions with attendees. [more]
September 29, 2023
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The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]
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