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What’s in the tails? Why the coming recession will be worse than expected

April 27, 2022
We are undergoing a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. Consensus forecasts have been consistently wrong over the last decade, and over the last couple of years alone they underestimated the scale of the pandemic rebound, the inflationary impact of the stimulus packages, and the fact they weren’t transitory. [more]

More documents contained in "Thematic Research"

124 Documents
September 28, 2022
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In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]
June 22, 2022
Region:
4
After two years in the virtual world Deutsche Bank Research returned to Paris to host another highly successful Global Consumer Conference. Around 700 people and including 90 companies, attended over the three days of the conference. Company and investor engagement was extremely high with more than 7,000 meeting requests. Tom Sykes, Head of European Consumer Staples and Stephen Powers, Head of US Consumer Staples, co-hosts of the event, said: “Feedback has been very positive from the companies and investment communities and we look forward to seeing everybody again in Paris in 2023 for our celebratory 20th year!” [more]
June 15, 2022
5
With growing fears that we’re heading for stagflation, investors are increasingly asking how they should be positioning for such an environment. Unfortunately, the headline takeaways from the 1970s are pretty bad – in real terms it was a terrible decade for equities and bonds across multiple countries. Whilst this decade is young, and the high inflation has only been around for just over a year so far, we can already see similar patterns between how different assets performed in the 1970s and how they’ve been doing today. [more]
May 11, 2022
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Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [more]
April 27, 2022
Analyst:
9
Deutsche Bank Research recently hosted its second annual Global ESG conference in March of this year. The purpose of the virtual event was to enable corporate & investor engagement on sustainability strategies. In addition to corporate presentations and meetings, Michael Bloomberg, UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and Solutions and Chair of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures served as the keynote speaker. Featured sessions included Nike's Sustainabilty team and Mastercard's Shamina Singh, Founder & President of the Center for Inclusive Growth. [more]
March 11, 2022
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With the Fed trying to achieve a soft landing for an economy weathering both high inflation and geopolitical upheaval, Deutsche Bank Research has adjusted its forecasts for rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, speaks with Matthew Barnard, Director of North American Equity Research, and details the numerous challenges facing the Fed as it attempts to delicately thread this policy needle. [more]
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