Jim Reid

Recent weeks have seen the global recovery motor along as expected, supported by the vaccine rollouts and a further easing of restrictions. However, since our last House View in May, the balance of risks is slightly more negative given the continued global reach of the delta variant and the reaction to the FOMC. [mehr]

This paper examines the potential for higher inflation and a return of boom/bust cycles over the next few years.
The report notes the very role of government in the economy is undergoing its biggest shift in 40 years manifested in the receding fear of inflation and rising levels of government debt that shaped a generation of policymakers. Replacing it is the perspective that economic policy should now prioritise broader social goals.
At its heart the research report debates whether inflation is transitory or the pursuit of these important social priorities by governments will mean inflation will have longer-term and far reaching implications for the health of the global economy. Either way, higher inflation is coming and policymakers are about to face their toughest battle in 40 years. [mehr]

Unsere Prognosen für die Weltwirtschaft sind im Vergleich zur vorhergehenden Ausgabe des Weltwirtschaftlichen Ausblicks vom März weitgehend unverändert. Wenn die Lockdowns in den USA und Europa beendet werden, ist in den kommenden Monaten mit kräftigem Wachstum zu rechnen. Gleichzeitig dürften sich die Zentralbanken vorerst noch zurückhalten, bis sich die weitere Entwicklung klarer abzeichnet. [mehr]

Since our last House View publication in March, our overall view of the global economy remains broadly the same. An end to the lockdowns in the US and Europe should be conducive to strong growth in the months ahead, while central banks are still expected to remain on the sidelinesfor now as they seek more clarity on the outlook. [mehr]

Pünktlich zum Frühlingsanfang haben wir unsere Prognosen für die Weltwirtschaft erneut nach oben korrigiert. Wir erwarten nun im Zuge der Erholung nach der Pandemie ein „Goldlöckchen“-Szenario mit kräftigem Wachstum und moderatem Inflationsdruck. Daher dürften die Zentralbanken ihre Leitzinsen in den kommenden Jahren unverändert lassen, wovon die Finanzmärkte profitieren sollten. [mehr]

The global economic outlook has improved significantly in recent months, and we see strong growth ahead with contained inflation pressures. The outlook has been boosted by the continued vaccination rollout, meaning that herd immunity is expected to arrive in the months ahead, along with major fiscal support. [mehr]

Nigel Wilson, CEO, Legal & General and Jim discuss how the future is in our own hands and that there are huge opportunities out there in new technologies and strategic investments that can overcome many of the secular negative forces we are all familiar with (debt, demographics, low productivity etc.). However Nigel believes we need to shed our old fashion attitude to the type of assets we invest long-term money into and urges Governments to provide the infrastructure and regulatory regime to make the future as bright as he thinks it can be. [mehr]

Nigel Wilson, CEO, Legal & General and Jim discuss how the future is in our own hands and that there are huge opportunities out there in new technologies and strategic investments that can overcome many of the secular negative forces we are all familiar with (debt, demographics, low productivity etc.). However Nigel believes we need to shed our old fashion attitude to the type of assets we invest long-term money into and urges Governments to provide the infrastructure and regulatory regime to make the future as bright as he thinks it can be. [mehr]

Covid-19 disruption to business has reshuffled priorities for CFOs and treasurers. They must address how to: maintain access to liquidity /credit; implement back-up procedures; create visibility to total cash in global locations; determine cash requirements in the short and medium term; and assess current exposures. [mehr]

Im Vergleich zum September haben wir unsere Prognosen für die Weltwirtschaft noch einmal angehoben, da es in den vergangenen Wochen unerwartet positive Nachrichten über potenzielle Impfstoffe gab. Der Wirkungsgrad der Impfstoffe liegt am oberen Rand der Erwartungen. Damit könnte die Rückkehr zur Normalität sehr viel rascher erfolgen als noch vor einem Monat vermutet – und dadurch schwinden Befürchtungen, dass wir uns möglicherweise an das Virus gewöhnen müssen. Bis Ende 2021 wird das Alltagsleben möglicherweise nicht mehr stark beeinträchtigt sein. [mehr]

Euan Munro, CEO, Aviva Investors, and Jim discuss what it’s like to run an asset management business and provide returns to clients in a pandemic. [mehr]

The global economic outlook has improved since September thanks to the positive vaccine news, and we now see global GDP returning to its pre-virus levels in Q2 2021. Significant risks around this forecast remain both to the downside (if the virus were to spread more severely this winter or a vaccine rollout were delayed) and the upside (if a vaccine rollout is quicker than anticipated). [mehr]