1. Research
  2. Über uns
  3. Autoren
  4. Jim Reid

Jim Reid

Research Stratege

Multi-Asset Research

Adresse:
Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London
IB - Research
Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street
EC2N 2DB London

Kontakt
Deutsche Bank Research

Analysen und Studien von Jim Reid

107 (13-24)
8. März 2023
14
Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [mehr]
21. Februar 2023
15
Nach mehreren Prognosesenkungen hat weltweit seit der Jahreswende wieder ein Aufschwung eingesetzt. In Europa z.B. haben sich die Erdgaspreise in den vergangenen Monaten mehr als halbiert, und eine Rezession im Euroraum steht unseres Erachtens nicht mehr unmittelbar bevor. Derweil hat China nach der Pandemie eine raschere Öffnung als weithin erwartet durchgeführt, weshalb wir unsere Prognosen nach oben korrigiert haben. Und in den USA, für die wir weiterhin eine Rezession in H2 prognostizieren, ist die Arbeitslosenquote auf einen 53-Jahres-Tiefstand gefallen. [mehr]
10. Februar 2023
16
After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [mehr]
14. Oktober 2022
19
Die Aussichten für die Wirtschaft und die Märkte haben sich seit der Juni-Ausgabe unseres Weltwirtschaftlichen Ausblicks merklich verschlechtert. An den Rentenmärkten platzt eine historische Blase, an den Aktienmärkten findet eine Korrektur statt, wie sie nur einmal pro Generation vorkommt, und die Flucht in den USD hält an. Wir haben als Erste eine Rezession in den USA zum Jahresende 2023 prognostiziert – diese Erwartung ist inzwischen Konsens. Auch für den Euroraum bzw. Deutschland erwarten wir für 2023 eine Kontraktion um mindestens 2% bzw. 3%. [mehr]
29. September 2022
20
Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [mehr]
28. September 2022
21
In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [mehr]
15. Juni 2022
24
With growing fears that we’re heading for stagflation, investors are increasingly asking how they should be positioning for such an environment. Unfortunately, the headline takeaways from the 1970s are pretty bad – in real terms it was a terrible decade for equities and bonds across multiple countries. Whilst this decade is young, and the high inflation has only been around for just over a year so far, we can already see similar patterns between how different assets performed in the 1970s and how they’ve been doing today. [mehr]
37.5.0