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Stefan Schneider

Chief German Economist
Macroeconomics

Topics:
Monetary policy, demography, behavioral economics

Address:
Mainzer Landstraße 11-17
60329 Frankfurt
Germany

Contact:
Deutsche Bank Research

More documents written by Stefan Schneider

112 (109-112)
June 29, 2010
109
In real life people do not always decide rationally on the basis of established preferences and complete information. Much of their behaviour is caused through their trying to cope with the complexity of the world around them by approximating. As a rule these approximation methods deliver serviceable results, but they often also lead to distorted perceptions and systematic errors. To avoid making flawed decisions, investors and investment consultants should be aware of these effects when assessing financial products, when estimating factors of relevance to investment performance and their own appetite for risk, and when considering their personal investment behaviour. [more]
January 29, 2009
Region:
110
For the first time in five years Germany is back in recession. Economic output has been on the decline since the second quarter of 2008. The financial markets crisis and the global economic downturn will weigh heavily on growth in 2009. Gross domestic product will continue to contract in real terms at least until the middle of this year. The loss of major sales markets and the surge in the euro – even though it has retraced slightly – will likely cause exports to decline markedly in real terms for the first time since 1993. Shrinking foreign demand together with declining profits in many sectors will lead to investment in plant and equipment contracting by 10%. Despite fiscal stimulus packages private consumption is scarcely likely to increase by more than a tad again in 2009 in the face of significantly falling employment and a rising savings ratio. [more]
February 14, 2008
111
After four years of above-average growth the global economy is clearly slowing down. The US housing recession and high oil prices are dampening global economic growth, even though the substantial USD depreciation of the last two years, decisive and timely Fed action and the USD 150 bn fiscal package will prevent a US recession. Due to robust domestic demand and solid current account surpluses in many cases the emerging markets – contrary to previous shocks – are providing an element of stabilisation. Europe will be affected by the US slowdown with a lag while the strong currency continues to be a drag. [more]
October 3, 2007
Region:
112
Germany faces historic challenges. The continuing structural shift towards a knowledge-based economy, fresh competition from Asia and other parts of the world, rapid ageing, tight fiscal constraints and global climate change are the most prominent examples. To develop future-proof strategies, politicians and businesses must take a look at the future interaction of these forces. With an innovative scenario analysis we therefore sketch the directions in which Germany could conceivably develop up to 2020. The most plausible of these future scenarios is the "Expedition Deutschland". [more]
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