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Sameer Goel

7 Documents
December 20, 2021
Analyst:
3
The plot for emerging markets thickens further in 2022. Not just the one with Fed ‘dots’, but also the plot around the vaccination roll outs, the zero Covid strategy in China, the normalization of supply chains, and on (geo)politics, among others. There are likely still multiple twists ahead in this tale, and possibly new factors (like Omicron) to deal with. And with all of that, the answer to whether EM can turn around its structural under-allocation from the last several years as it builds back on its appeal of carry/vol and growth. [more]
December 20, 2021
4
Asian markets have been much more resilient than the other emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) and Latin America in 2021. Whether this endures in 2022 will be determined by whether US equities can withstand the Fed raising rates (tightening), renminbi stability can continue, and benign inflation in Asia can last. [more]
September 13, 2018
5
EM stress is still largely idiosyncratic, but the risk of a broader fallout is increasing. We have argued that external factors account for two-thirds to three-fourths of EM’s performance – especially for credit markets. The worsening of these external conditions is exposing the weakest links across EM and taking a disproportionate toll on several important economies. So far they are bearing the brunt of EM’s stress. [more]
May 10, 2018
6
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [more]
April 12, 2018
7
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead:
Although EM's upturn is in early stages across many emerging economies and could be sustained for a couple of years in many others, EM's "rally cycle" is already four years long in hard currency debt and its extension hinges crucially on global growth acceleration. This is now being challenged by US policy initiatives and geopolitics. Will this pass without disrupting the still benign underlying global recovery, and do such initiatives still have additional legs? [more]
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