The House View Snapshot

Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Jim Reid, Quinn Brody

This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key ongoing/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, US mid-term, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on US macro and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. [more]

September 11, 2018

Mind the (political) hurdles

Region:

Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Jim Reid, Quinn Brody

We’re at the stage of the policy tightening cycle where history suggests a higher likelihood of accidents in financial markets. Recent events support that, with markets buffeted by negative headlines from Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and broader EMs. Although there are idiosyncratic risks in the above, they are being magnified by a persistent, if steady, Fed tightening cycle and an ECB that is tapering towards a QE standstill. Meanwhile Brexit and trade wars bubble along in the background. [more]

July 25, 2018

Tug of (trade) war

Region:

Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody

Analyst:

This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk and effects of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

June 27, 2018

Trade war tensions

Region:

Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha

This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

May 22, 2018

Supported global growth

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Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha

After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year. This has raised concern over the growth cycle, and the potential impact on risk assets.
However, our global macro view remains positive and we still forecast the global economy to grow robustly this year. We have downgraded our 2018 forecast for the eurozone, which is balanced by an upgrade to our China forecast. In the US, our outlook is unchanged as fiscal policy begins trickling through the economy and the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw accommodation. [more]

April 23, 2018

Trade wars and more

Region:

Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody

Analyst:

Markets have been on their toes since the correction that started at end-January. Listless trading certainly reflects this malaise: major equity indexes have not suffered another sharp selloff but nevertheless remain near their year-to-date lows. While fundamentals remain robust, geopolitics and trade war fears, concerns over slowing global growth, and idiosyncratic issues in the tech sector have all weighed. [more]

March 14, 2018

Slow-burning issues

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Analyst:

Robust, broad-based global expansion. Synchronised growth across regions and economies, in many cases at above-trend levels. We expect global growth to accelerate to +3.9% this year, marginally above 2017, as fundamentals remain supportive. We expect the US and eurozone to continue growing above potential, but do not anticipate any further acceleration. In China, we expect growth to slow, and are more worried about inflation and financial risks than consensus. 2018 should mark the peak of the current cyclical expansion; growth should decelerate from 2019. [more]

February 7, 2018

A healthy pullback

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Analyst:

After a stellar 2017 and an even stronger January, risk assets have undergone a sharp pullback in the last week. Initially triggered by higher rates as markets repriced inflation expectations higher, the episode evolved into a technical spout of volatility exacerbated by programmatic strategies. The pullback is healthy, after a highly unusual stretch of market tranquility. [more]

January 23, 2018

The House View: Snapshot

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Analyst:

This edition reviews the global macro outlook, with 2018 likely marking the peak of the current cyclical expansion. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts [more]

December 11, 2017

The House View: Happy holidays

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Analyst: