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After decades of rapid globalisation, national economies and financial systems are more closely connected than ever before. At the same time, open markets and free competition are increasingly under criticism and even restricted. A major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research therefore focuses on how Europe fares in an international comparison, how changing structures and the regulatory framework influence the development of financial service providers, their clients and financial markets globally, and which opportunities and risks result from long-term megatrends such as climate change, demographic change, digitalisation and new forms of mobility.

420 (21-30)
    
September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]
23
September 19, 2023

Video: AI and six themes

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
The excitement around Artificial Intelligence that had been building since OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT at the end of last year cooled off slightly over the past couple of months. Investors, entrepreneurs and analysts went to the beach, the media focused on time-honoured summer themes including season stories, and students took time off from writing essays using chatbots. Adrian Cox highlight six themes you missed while you were at the beach. Visit our dedicated AI website for more www.dbresearch.com/ai [more]
24
September 12, 2023

Assets that haven't moved yet

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Intriguing Market Insights from Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Galina Pozdnyakova. Despite being closer to a Fed pause, many rate-sensitive assets are yet to recover. Investors are cautious, perhaps due to last year's rapid drops. But if history is any indicator, any post-pause rally could be swift.
In years like 2023, the latter part of the year tends to be good for equities. Hedge funds, trailing the S&P 500, may make moves to catch up.
In Europe, interdependencies with China are worth noting. Despite recent challenges, we remain optimistic about Chinese markets, with potential catalysts like improved corporate earnings and stimulus on the horizon.
A key concern remains with the lag effects of rate rises impacting the high-yield debt market. [more]
26
September 7, 2023

Q&A with Anna Friedemann

Region:
International
Q&A with
Analyst:
Anna Friedemann
Anna Friedemann works in our #dbresearch team covering Central Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa (CEEMEA). Anna has a particular focus on local markets and FX with a current focus on Ukraine, Egypt and Romania.
In a new ‘Q&A with’, she explains what working as a CEEMEA strategist entails, which topics she thinks could be driving markets into year-end and which markets have come into focus. [more]
27
August 14, 2023

Video: Latest US consumer price report

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Brett Ryan
US inflation ticked up slightly in July as widely expected, but the broad moderating trend since a year ago appears to still be in place. What does it mean for the Federal Reserve and hopes for a soft landing? For this and more, please check out our latest video with Deutsche Bank’s senior US economist Brett Ryan and Americas Communications head Brian Blackstone. [more]
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