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After decades of rapid globalisation, national economies and financial systems are more closely connected than ever before. At the same time, open markets and free competition are increasingly under criticism and even restricted. A major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research therefore focuses on how Europe fares in an international comparison, how changing structures and the regulatory framework influence the development of financial service providers, their clients and financial markets globally, and which opportunities and risks result from long-term megatrends such as climate change, demographic change, digitalisation and new forms of mobility.

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December 20, 2021

Video: EU Steel Outlook 2022

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Bastian Synagowitz
2021 was a record year in steel. We expect three key drivers to support an above-average margin environment over the next two to three years: 1) demand growth in Western markets, 2) policy support in places like China (which constrains both output and exports of steel) and 3) inflation at the tail of the cost curve. [more]
151
December 17, 2021

World Outlook 2022-23: Dodging the Tempests

Region:
International
Podzept (Podcast series)
Analyst:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom. [more]
152
December 6, 2021

Video: Outlook for European Banks 2022

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Benjamin Goy
Inflation is not transitory, in our view. While its destination might be clear, detours and delays are possible -- as highlighted by last week's Omicron sell-off. Nevertheless, at c.8x earnings, the sector is not priced for imminent interest rate hikes, pointing to upside in case of delivery of interest rate hikes -- the key theme for the sector in 2022. [more]
155
November 16, 2021

After COP 26 – the burden shifting to corporates?

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Luke Templeman
Governments from around the world will parade their climate credentials at the COP26 summit ... but when the dust has settled, much of the pressure to implement their plans will be delegated to corporates. Post-COP, firms will be pushed via policy or social pressure to spend more to mitigate climate change. The cost may be high but proactive firms are already being rewarded by customers and investors. Those that delay may face penalties. [more]
159
November 11, 2021

Barrelling back to stagflation?

Region:
International
The House View - Snapshot
The short-term growth outlook has weakened amidst supply-chain issues and an energy shock that has boosted inflation. But there is still major fiscal support, whilst vaccines and other medicines will help against Covid.

If inflation proves even higher than anticipated, that could lead to tighter monetary policy that knocks growth off course. [more]
160
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