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Thematic Research

Excerpts of selected reports as well as fundamental analyses which were originally published on Client Research Portal. 
 
141 (71-80)
    
February 28, 2020

COVID-19: How policy can buffer the virus shock

Region:
Europe
Thematic Research
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Mark Wall
In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak. Voluntary steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (“social distancing”) as well as official containment measures are likely to disrupt economic activity. We expect disruption beyond northern Italy, an area which accounts for about 5% of euro area GDP. A temporary economic shock similar in scale to Hong Kong’s when SARS struck in 2003 would only need to occur in 10% of the euro area for area-wide GDP to stagnate in H1 and take the zone to the verge of technical recession. It is a highly fluid situation, but this might be a best case outcome. [more]
71
February 27, 2020

Argentina - A narrow path to „sustainability“

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Drausio Giacomelli, Felipe Labbe, Hongtao Jiang
We revisit the debt situation in Argentina and update our assessment on debt sustainability by projecting both debt stocks and FX debt repayment capacity. Argentina’s debt problem originates from fiscal dominance and lack of nominal anchor. The problem will likely persist in the future unless Argentina implements structural reforms. Current macroeconomic conditions are significantly more challenging than in the early 2000s in terms of potential growth, inflation, and external conditions. [more]
72
February 25, 2020

Longer-term benefits of the Phase One deal

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Linan Liu, Yi Xiong
The Phase One trade agreement between the US and China is more than a trade war truce and USD200 bn of purchases. It covers a broad range of topics from intellectual property (IP) protection to opening up China's market. Our broad assessment is successful implementation of this trade deal could bring sizable long-term benefits to China and the world economy. [more]
73
February 18, 2020

Green Bonds – Increasingly Relevant in the Corporate Bond Market

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Craig Nicol
There were few asset classes that saw quite the stratospheric growth in 2019 like the green bond market. Now, even though it’s a decade or so old, the market is still very much in its infancy and last year we saw a bit over $250bn of green bonds issued around the world. Because this is tiny relative to the wider corporate bond market, green bonds don’t receive a lot of attention. But that is changing quickly. The growth of the green corporate bond market is impressive, more than three-quarters of the market comes from the US or Europe, with the latter making up nearly 60% alone. China makes up just 5%. Currency-wise, 95% of these bonds are denominated in either USD or EUR. At a sector level, utilities (39%) and banking (33%) dominate. [more]
74
February 3, 2020

Brexit update: a short guide to the next stage in talks

Region:
Europe
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Oliver Harvey
Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations. [more]
76
December 4, 2019

Konzept # 17: Imagine 2030

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Jim Reid, Luke Templeman
Many ‘decade ahead’ predictions prove unreliable. And we admit this special edition of Konzept cannot be a perfect crystal ball. Regardless, we present 24 contrarian ideas for how the 2020s may evolve because we believe it is best to be prepared for the unexpected themes that may arise over the coming decade. After all, if the 2010s have taught us anything it is that the trends of the prior decade are no guide for the decade to come. [more]
79
December 3, 2019

Green shoots or false down?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Peter Hooper
The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit. [more]
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