Focus Germany - macroeconomic and economic policy issues in Germany

April 2, 2013

Sentiment indicators – another setback in spring

Region:

Germany

Focus Germany

Topic:

Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Bernhard Gräf, Stefan Schneider

For the third year in a row now, monthly surveys such as the ifo business climate and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicate that the economy seems to be running out of steam in spring following a significant upswing around the turn of the year. In our latest World Outlook we now expect that EMU GDP will not pick up until Q3, so we have reduced our forecast for the 2013 average to -0.6% (2014: +1.0%). However, we have not revised down our relatively cautious growth forecast for Germany (2013: +0.3%; 2014: +1.5%). [more]

131

March 1, 2013

The worst is (probably) over

Region:

Germany

Focus Germany

Topic:

Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Bernhard Gräf, Frank Zipfel, Heiko Peters, Oliver Rakau

There is much to suggest that the economy returned to a growth path – albeit only a modest one – in the first quarter after a 0.6% contraction of real GDP in the closing quarter of 2012. New order intake and industrial output had already begun to pick up in December, so there was a growth overhang in production from the outset in Q1. Besides, business sentiment had already started to brighten four months ago. [more]

132

January 28, 2013

Gradual improvement in 2013

Region:

Germany

Focus Germany

Topic:

Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Bernhard Gräf

We expect a recovery to set in approximately in spring this year on the back of a stabilising euro area and more buoyant emerging markets. Owing to the low starting point, however, annual average growth will probably come to no more than 1/4% in 2013. Nonetheless, the labour market is expected to remain relatively stable. With oil prices forecast to stabilise, consumer prices will probably rise less strongly this year. Public-sector budgets look set to deteriorate for cyclical reasons in 2013. However, with a deficit of only about 1/2% of GDP, Germany would still be in an excellent position by international standards. [more]

133

May 19, 2008

Women on expedition to 2020: The path to more gender equity in Germany

Region:

Germany

Focus Germany

Topic:

Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee

Female and male participation in most walks of life are unequal today, either due to lack of opportunity or by choice. Along which dimensions are changes likely in Germany by 2020? Looking forward, we need to find some answers, in order to make the right decisions. We therefore examine the interactions between women and future structural changes, such as population ageing, a growing project economy, increasing knowledge intensity and fast-spreading virtual connectedness. We develop a plausible future, for women, and shaped by women, and pinpoint implications for government and corporations. [more]

134

October 3, 2007

Germany 2020 - New challenges for a land on expedition

Region:

Germany

Focus Germany

Topic:

Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Ingo Rollwagen, Jan Hofmann, Stefan Schneider

Germany faces historic challenges. The continuing structural shift towards a knowledge-based economy, fresh competition from Asia and other parts of the world, rapid ageing, tight fiscal constraints and global climate change are the most prominent examples. To develop future-proof strategies, politicians and businesses must take a look at the future interaction of these forces. With an innovative scenario analysis we therefore sketch the directions in which Germany could conceivably develop up to 2020. The most plausible of these future scenarios is the "Expedition Deutschland". [more]

135

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