EU Monitor

For the EU members that have ratified it, the Fiscal Compact is set to come into force at the beginning of 2013. Among other things, the signatories to the Compact pledge to introduce a debt brake at the national level by 2014. Our progress report shows that numerous euro countries have already implemented debt brakes, five of which have constitutional status. Others, by contrast, still have to provide evidence that they are serious about the institutional anchoring of sound fiscal policy. [more]

The political dynamics in Europe have shifted against universal banks in recent months. This is a dangerous development that threatens the key role such banks play in modern economies and risks eliminating many of the advantages universal banks have to offer: in a “one-stop shop”, they provide their customers with a broad range of tailor-made services, higher volumes of credit and lower funding costs than narrower “specialist banks”. In addition, thanks to the diversification of their operations and the potential to leverage revenue and cost synergies, universal banks tend to be more stable than specialist banks. They also provide for diversity in bank business models and are better positioned to monitor the financial health of specific clients as well as to spot unsustainable risk accumulation across financial markets. [more]

Since the start of 2011 the financial and sovereign debt crises have forced roughly half the governments in the euro area to accept a premature end to their term of office. So far, the elections in the crisis countries have established the conservative camp as the clear winner at the polls. The established major parties continue to dominate the political system in many countries. Nevertheless, the electoral successes of right-wing populist and newly established left-wing factions may hamper the formation of properly functioning governments in future. If the economic outlook for the young generation does not improve, this trend could continue. [more]

Since the financial crisis, the countries of Europe have been faced with the difficult challenge of consolidating their budgets while at the same time promoting economic growth. One approach is a growth-conducive tax system, which keeps distorting effects of taxation on the growth factors – labour, capital and technological progress – as small as possible. Tax reforms carried out in the EU to date are steps in the right direction. Increasing economic policy coordination in Europe offers the chance to implement further structural reforms. [more]

Since 2006 the European Union has increasingly been looking to sign deep and comprehensive free trade agreements with emerging markets. In the meantime it has also been turning its attention to some industrialised nations. A trade agreement with South Korea has already come into effect. Although the EU is pinning great hopes on India and a number of ASEAN states, it is also keen to conclude similar agreements with Mercosur, Canada, Ukraine and virtually all of the Southern Mediterranean countries. It is even considering Japan and the United States as potential partners. If the European Union's bilateral free trade strategy were fully implemented by the end of this decade, it would give a moderate boost to trade, welfare, growth and employment in the EU and would often provide a much stronger stimulus in the partner countries concerned. This free trade strategy is also highly ambitious in terms of its diplomatic objectives because issues that have so far received insufficient attention – such as trade in services, technical trade barriers and foreign direct investment – are to be better regulated. Whether the EU – currently the world's largest trading bloc – is ultimately successful with this strategy will in many cases be decided by domestic politics in the partner countries. The fundamental question of whether a deep bilateral strategy should perhaps be complemented by a parallel multilateral approach as a matter of considerable urgency will be especially pertinent in transatlantic relations. However, there is also a risk of tensions within the international system. [more]

The U.S. state and local government sector undoubtedly faced significant short-run challenges brought about by the 2007-2009 recession which are likely to partly persist over the next few fiscal years. Yet, warnings of state bankruptcies and mass defaults at the local level are unduly exaggerated. All in all, a satisfactory assessment requires the separation of cyclical revenue problems from looming long-term challenges in pensions and healthcare. Although they do not pose an imminent threat yet, state and local pension funds and retiree healthcare commitments are in dire need of reform in order to keep them affordable. Moreover, to improve their finances, subnational jurisdictions need to correct the structural flaws in their revenue systems and budget processes and increase the effectiveness of spending to curtail the unsustainable ballooning of costs. [more]

The world economic crisis has seriously weakened potential economic growth in many industrialised countries for the coming years. And new regulatory requirements in the financial sector are likely to deal it a further blow. This has made economic policy measures to stimulate economic growth in the wake of structural reform an absolutely essential complement to macroeconomic measures, especially in the big industrial nations. Even at a time when the scope has narrowed for fiscal policy, this still holds true. It is precisely in periods of consolidation that structural reforms are vital to sustained success. [more]

Europe on the way to becoming a transfer union? The euro rescue packages - and the ECB’s involvement in the crisis - are reputed to be the forerunners of a transfer union between the euro countries. However, for the time being these are mainly government guarantees, the failure of which cannot be taken for granted. The EU is even further away from systematic financial equalisation of the euro countries. Nevertheless, continuing macroeconomic tensions could increase the need for transfers - and further inflame political tensions. [more]

The world trade regime has reached an historic crossroads. Conclusion of the Doha Round this year could give global trade a significant boost. If the negotiations break down, in the medium term the international community faces the prospect of a relapse into tit for tat in trade policy. To bring the Doha Round to a successful conclusion political leadership is necessary – in the big emerging markets as well as in the US and EU. The former also stand to reap substantial gains from reciprocal market liberalisation. [more]

The financial crisis dealt international banking a serious blow. This paper reviews 1) the extent to which financial markets have become global in recent years as well as the damage inflicted on cross-border linkages by the financial crisis, 2) the reasons for the internationalisation process and 3) prospects for international banking in the “new-normal” environment. Apart from market developments, this reflects a new focus in the political and regulatory debate aimed at increasing the – mostly domestic – grip on the banking industry. [more]