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Brexit

The outcome of the UK referendum on 23 June 2016 took the markets and politicians by surprise. The decision to leave the EU has economic and political consequences not only for the United Kingdom, but also for its partners in the EU and for the future of European integration. The uncertainty concerning details of the withdrawal arrangement, the transition period and the final agreement on future relations between the EU and the UK are putting a strain on the European economies, above all growth prospects for the UK. EU member states, as well as individual industries, are affected by the UK's foreseeable exit to varying degrees. The pending regulatory requirements are immense and range from trade-related matters and access to the European single market (particularly important for the financial industry), to horizontal policies such as migration and social policy and domestic and security policies. Finally, it raises the question of how the UK's exit will alter the remaining 27 EU members' countries' priorities regarding European policy, including further institutional steps towards stabilising the eurozone.

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August 5, 2016

EU Regional Policy: Changes after Brexit?

Region:
Europe
Chart in Focus
Topic:
Brexit, Economic and european policy
Analyst:
Laura Rosenberger, Patricia Wruuck
The mid-term review of the EU’s multiannual financial framework 2014-2020 is scheduled for the end of 2016. The scenario of a Brexit taking effect in the upcoming years and the potential impact thereof might well be discussed as part of the review. However, given current uncertainties about timing and circumstances of the UK leaving the European Union, it is still too early to fully adapt accounts. Yet, two things seem certain for the time being: First, a Brexit taking effect during the second half of the budgetary planning period would certainly prompt the need for further adjustments. Second, it would also affect funding for regional and cohesion policy as one of the largest EU budgetary items. [more]
12
July 28, 2016

Social security system coordination after Brexit: Free movement provides for more than the right to work in partner countries

Region:
Europe
Talking Point
Topic:
Brexit, Economic and european policy
Analyst:
Dieter Bräuninger
The issue of future EU-UK relations has many facets. Among those widely overlooked so far are the consequences for the coordination of social security systems. Will the EU’s social and labour law-related standards still apply in the UK after Brexit? Will British pensioners living in France or Spain still be allowed to reside there and to receive a full pension? What about EU citizens’ access to services from Britain’s National Health Service (NHS)? Will bankers who have migrated from London to Frankfurt still be eligible to receive the German child benefit for their children who stayed behind? [more]
14
July 1, 2016

Brexit: German automotive and pharmaceutical industries hit the hardest

Region:
Europe
Talking Point
Topic:
Brexit, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann
Following the UK referendum, Brexit will also leave traces on German industry. After all, 7.5% of all German exports went to the UK in 2015, making it Germany’s third most important export market after the United States and France. The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are likely to be hit the hardest by Brexit. This is because the UK accounts for 12.8% and 10.5%, respectively, of these two industries’ total exports. In addition, they both generally have an above-average export ratio. The UK referendum is likely to have an impact on individual companies’ investment decisions and German companies’ UK pricing structures in the short term. [more]
16
September 15, 2014

A future in the EU? Reconciling the ‘Brexit’ debate with a more modern EU

Region:
Europe
EU Monitor
Topic:
Brexit, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher
The future of the British EU membership has become one of the most pressing concerns for the EU. The EU-British relationship has always been one of special character but a number of recent developments have led to a ‘Brexit’ gaining momentum. Only the UK itself will be able to rationalise the domestic debate on EU membership. Economically, Britain and the EU are inextricably linked. Realistic estimates predict losses in the range of 1 to 3% of British GDP in case of a Brexit. Likewise, the Single Market would shrink by 15%. [more]
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