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September 6, 2021
With less than three weeks to go until the German federal election, we put together a succinct presentation to address the following questions: #1: Is the SPD boom yet another spike in voter preferences – that is going to mean-revert? #2: How do policy platforms compare and where are the parties’ red lines? #3: Which coalition option is most likely to materialize? #4: Is a leftish red-red-green coalition a possibility at all? #5: Are there any procedural stumbling blocks? How long might the Merkel government act as a caretaker government? #6: What could fiscal, climate, distribution, and housing policies look like in a new three-way coalition? #7: What is the likely impact on Germany’s potential growth? In addition to summarizing our election outlook, we include snapshots of recently published research on how key policy areas like climate, energy, EU, distribution, and fiscal policy might be shaped by the next government. [more]