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Jochen Moebert

More documents written by Jochen Moebert

113 Documents
January 23, 2024
Region:
1
Germany lags behind in digitalization. E-Government is a case in point. Historically, public projects are often based on complex coordination across many various entities. We think, switching from this traditional approach to a clear central governance is essential to implement a public cloud, to digitalize registers and offer digital services for citizens and businesses. Interestingly, Bavaria outperforms and seems to have a more central approach than other Länder. [more]
December 8, 2023
Region:
3
The external environment as well as monetary and fiscal policy should provide strong headwinds. Sentiment will likely be dragged lower by the increasingly evident structural problems. We anticipate a modest recession during the winter half to be followed by a gradual recovery from spring onwards. We expect the government to survive the internal quarrels with respect to the 2024 budget, following the constitutional court ruling. Debt brake reform is unlikely in the short run. A cross-party consensus for a Transformation Fund 2.0 might emerge before September regional elections. [more]
December 1, 2023
Region:
Topic:
4
The AI boom has had important implications for the semiconductor market. In particular the logic chips are in high demand. In 2023 surging demand was constrained by shrinking supply. This resulted in a substantial fall in units sold whereas prices surged. Here we analyze the underlying economic and technological drivers and forecast the development of global sales of the semiconductor market until the end of 2025. [more]
October 20, 2023
Region:
5
Current advances in AI and a media-savvy generation - in combination with the Internet of Things, edge computing and 5G - provide the opportunity to rethink smart city models such as City 5.0 and soft city. We discuss some use cases – and the trade-offs to be resolved – that arise from connecting and automating a city. Besides digital platforms – now augmented by AI –, smart city market segments such as smart buildings, digital energy and environmental solutions are expected to grow strongly in the coming years. Since not all of these are likely to be publicly funded, interesting investment opportunities do arise to create more efficient, sustainable, and livable urban spaces. [more]
October 13, 2023
Region:
6
A double-dip recession. Hard and soft data point to a GDP contraction of about 0.3% in Q3. Despite receding inflation,we expect that private consumption will only gradually come out of its rut, as consumer confidence has remained depressed. While the overall decline in GDP over the double-dip recession (Q4 22/Q1 23 and Q3 23) will probably be less than 1 percentage point, a renewed fall in GDP provides another blow to already downbeat German confidence. This negative feedback loop will likely weigh on the economy in 2024. In particular, structural supply bottlenecks look set to hamper growth opportunities and the energy transition is likely to slow potential growth in Germany towards 0.5% and keep the inflation rate above 2%. [more]
September 29, 2023
Region:
7
Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [more]
July 25, 2023
Region:
9
Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]
April 21, 2023
Region:
11
The boom is over. Five key arguments lead us to expect only a price dip. Negative real interest rates, inflation protection through real estate, rising rental growth and most importantly a high fundamental supply shortage. In addition, real house prices have already fallen very sharply due to the surge in inflation. CO2 emissions from buildings are increasingly coming into focus. Prices have started to diverge between properties with low and high emissions. This divergence is likely to increase. [more]
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