Jim Reid

Analyst:

Jim Reid

With the rapid growth in AI, and the likes of ChatGPT taking the world by storm in recent months, we have seen renewed fears that human labour will be increasingly replaced over the years ahead. But this refrain has been heard regularly before over the last several centuries. [more]

March 8, 2023

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

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Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid

Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [more]

February 10, 2023

The Taps Still Tightening

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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]

December 8, 2022

The Looming Recession

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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction.
— Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies.
— Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key
commodity markets and supply chains [more]

September 29, 2022

Shipwrecked

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Analyst:

Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]

September 28, 2022

Long-Term Asset Return Study 2022: How we got here and where we're going…

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Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Luke Templeman

In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]

June 24, 2022

The gathering storm

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Analyst:

The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction. Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key commodity markets and supply chains. [more]

June 15, 2022

Investing during Stagflation: What happened in the 1970s

Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid

With growing fears that we’re heading for stagflation, investors are increasingly asking how they should be positioning for such an environment. Unfortunately, the headline takeaways from the 1970s are pretty bad – in real terms it was a terrible decade for equities and bonds across multiple countries. Whilst this decade is young, and the high inflation has only been around for just over a year so far, we can already see similar patterns between how different assets performed in the 1970s and how they’ve been doing today. [more]

June 8, 2022

Default Study - 2022: The end of the ultra-low default world?

Region:

Jim Reid, Karthik Nagalingam

Analyst:

The 24th annual study finds that the last 12 months have seen us grind back down towards near zero defaults again for BB/Bs. [more]

April 27, 2022

What’s in the tails? Why the coming recession will be worse than expected

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David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid, Peter Hooper

Analyst:

We are undergoing a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. Consensus forecasts have been consistently wrong over the last decade, and over the last couple of years alone they underestimated the scale of the pandemic rebound, the inflationary impact of the stimulus packages, and the fact they weren’t transitory. [more]

April 22, 2022

Prepare for a hard landing

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Analyst:

The storm clouds over the global economy have darkened dramatically. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to fundamental questions about Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and the continent’s geopolitical stability. It has also significantly pushed up commodity prices, exacerbating above-target inflation, and creating a serious risk that longer-term expectations become unanchored. [more]

January 13, 2022

Navigating perilous waters

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