Jim Reid

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

Recent months have seen a mounting case for a US soft landing as inflation has fallen without much stress in the labour market. Yet at the same time, the global economy is now being buffeted by several headwinds and the backdrop is fragile, with sovereign bond yields at multi-year highs across the world. [more]

September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:

Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid

Analyst:

The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]

July 3, 2023

AI in action: how first movers are using ChatGPT

Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Jim Reid, Olga Cotaga

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is rampant as enterprises inundate tech firms demanding AI products, yet there are still operational, governance and cultural barriers. [more]

June 15, 2023

The clock is ticking

Region:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

We have consistently argued over the last 2-3 years that the US is heading for its first genuine policy-led boom-bust cycle in at least four decades. The inflation we see was induced largely by expansive fiscal and monetary policy, and the aggressive rate hikes needed to tame that have now materialised. Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented. [more]

June 13, 2023

World outlook: The waiting game...

Region:

Analyst:

Jim Reid, Mark Wall, Matthew Luzzetti

Podzept (Podcast series)

Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [more]

June 7, 2023

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

Region:

David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid

Analyst:

May 22, 2023

History suggests AI will ultimately create not destroy jobs

Region:

Analyst:

Jim Reid

With the rapid growth in AI, and the likes of ChatGPT taking the world by storm in recent months, we have seen renewed fears that human labour will be increasingly replaced over the years ahead. But this refrain has been heard regularly before over the last several centuries. [more]

March 8, 2023

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

Region:

Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid

Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [more]

February 10, 2023

The Taps Still Tightening

Region:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]

December 8, 2022

The Looming Recession

Region:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction.
— Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies.
— Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key
commodity markets and supply chains [more]

September 29, 2022

Shipwrecked

Region:

Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]

September 28, 2022

Long-Term Asset Return Study 2022: How we got here and where we're going…

Region:

Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Luke Templeman