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Real estate

Analyses of the situation in the construction sector and studies on the real-estate market both in Germany as a whole and in selected centres in Germany and abroad.

65 Documents
December 8, 2023
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The external environment as well as monetary and fiscal policy should provide strong headwinds. Sentiment will likely be dragged lower by the increasingly evident structural problems. We anticipate a modest recession during the winter half to be followed by a gradual recovery from spring onwards. We expect the government to survive the internal quarrels with respect to the 2024 budget, following the constitutional court ruling. Debt brake reform is unlikely in the short run. A cross-party consensus for a Transformation Fund 2.0 might emerge before September regional elections. [more]
2
October 20, 2023
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Current advances in AI and a media-savvy generation - in combination with the Internet of Things, edge computing and 5G - provide the opportunity to rethink smart city models such as City 5.0 and soft city. We discuss some use cases – and the trade-offs to be resolved – that arise from connecting and automating a city. Besides digital platforms – now augmented by AI –, smart city market segments such as smart buildings, digital energy and environmental solutions are expected to grow strongly in the coming years. Since not all of these are likely to be publicly funded, interesting investment opportunities do arise to create more efficient, sustainable, and livable urban spaces. [more]
3
September 29, 2023
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Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [more]
4
July 25, 2023
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Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]
6
April 21, 2023
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The boom is over. Five key arguments lead us to expect only a price dip. Negative real interest rates, inflation protection through real estate, rising rental growth and most importantly a high fundamental supply shortage. In addition, real house prices have already fallen very sharply due to the surge in inflation. CO2 emissions from buildings are increasingly coming into focus. Prices have started to diverge between properties with low and high emissions. This divergence is likely to increase. [more]
8
March 9, 2023
Region:
The German economy – one year after. With surprisingly strong hard data for January, chances are rising that GDP might be saved from another decline in Q1. Although not yet our baseline call, this would prevent Germany from going through a technical recession. However, still heightened uncertainty and real income losses due to high inflation will likely keep investment spending and private consumption flatlining in the first half of the year. Hence, we maintain our 0% forecast for 2023 German GDP growth, although upside risks have increased since the start of the year. [more]
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