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1192 Documents
September 29, 2023

Germany’s competitiveness between pioneer and laggard

Region:
Germany
Talking Point
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Julius Schumann
Online PDF 172k
Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [more]
September 29, 2023

The Future of Money

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure
PDF 916k
The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]
September 28, 2023

Video: Gianpaolo Tomasi on cross-sectional mean reversion

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Gianpaolo Tomasi
Watch video 
In March 2021 we published a report introducing our cross-sectional mean reversion factor that has been traded out-of-sample since then (Bloomberg ticker: DBRPGERU). In this new report we expand on our previous work by showing how using daily returns more efficiently improves performance even when trading weekly and demonstrate how earnings dates can boost predictive power by avoiding trading against the post-earnings drift. We also introduce an approach to improve the signal using trading volume and propose a turnover control approach that can enhance capacity while preserving performance. [more]
September 28, 2023

Historic first half for European banks: More profitable than ever

Region:
Europe
Talking Point
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Online PDF 129k
The banking sector in Europe is benefiting from a set of conditions which have allowed for the strongest bottom-line result on record, even surpassing the pre-financial crisis peak of 2007. Rising interest rates have led to a surge in net interest income, asset quality remains sound and provisions therefore contained, and banks maintain tight cost discipline. Capital and liquidity levels continue to be robust, considerable returns to shareholders notwithstanding. European banks have also caught up with their US peers with regard to profitability ratios, for the first time in many years. Further gains in this benign environment may be harder to achieve though. [more]
September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
PDF 131k
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]
September 19, 2023

Video: AI and six themes

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
Watch video 
The excitement around Artificial Intelligence that had been building since OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT at the end of last year cooled off slightly over the past couple of months. Investors, entrepreneurs and analysts went to the beach, the media focused on time-honoured summer themes including season stories, and students took time off from writing essays using chatbots. Adrian Cox highlight six themes you missed while you were at the beach. Visit our dedicated AI website for more www.dbresearch.com/ai [more]
September 18, 2023

Supply bottlenecks: Obstacles to growth and energy transition

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Sectors and resources, Sustainability
Analyst:
Eric Heymann
PDF 641k
Megatrends such as decarbonisation, digitalisation and demographics, as well as signs of deglobalisation, could cause structural supply bottlenecks in the 2020s. In this report, we look at commodities such as copper, cobalt, nickel or lithium, for which global demand is likely to rise faster than supply, not least due to the energy transition. The availability of labour is also increasingly becoming a scarcity factor. Due to supply bottlenecks, potential growth in Germany could be closer to the 0.5% than the 1% mark in the future. [more]
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