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December 17, 2015
Even after yesterday’s Fed rate hike – the first in nine years – the central banks will continue to generously provide the global economy with liquidity in 2016. Global growth looks set to remain below the average and uneven in 2016, at 3.3% (2015: 3.1%). With oil prices normalising somewhat – the oil price decline in 2015 probably contributed ¼ - ½ of a pp to global growth – and wage inflation moderate – with the possible exception of the US, where wage growth might finally pick up considerably in view of almost full employment – household consumption will again probably be the most important growth engine. Despite extremely low interest rates, credit-driven exuberance – which, by the way, was one of the reasons for the global economic and financial crisis in the middle of the past decade – seems unlikely in 2016. [more]