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    Global
    UN Climate Summit: The most inconvenient message remains unsaidoverlay
    December 14, 2018
    Talking Point
    Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains.
    The multiple stages of the blockchain revolution – or into the crypto future and backoverlay
    December 12, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution.
    Air transport and tourism: more and more serious growing painsoverlay
    November 21, 2018
    Talking Point
    Steady growth in air transport is leading to capacity bottlenecks, both in terms of available planes and at individual airports. Capacities will need to be increased, which means that more money must be earmarked for fixed-asset investments as well as labour and operating expenses. Taken together, the growing pains in the aviation sector and the rise in jet fuel prices may prove an overwhelming chal-lenge for some market participants. Air transport growth has also resulted in higher capacity utilisation in related sectors, such as tourism (the “overtourism” phenomenon comes to mind). There are, in fact, discussions about limiting or redirecting visitor flows.
    Europe
    EU elections countdown #1: Brexit delay and the next European Parliamentoverlay
    February 13, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Ahead of the May 23–26 European Parliament elections, the EU is surrounded by internal and external challenges, its leaders increasingly divided, and its integrity and credibility challenged by Eurosceptic and anti-European groups across the continent. An extension of Article 50 could push the Brexit date close to or even beyond the European elections. Under EU treaties the UK would then be required to participate in the vote. The implications for the next EP – both if the UK agreed and refused to hold elections – could bear risks for the unanimity required in the European Council for an extension of Article 50 beyond the election date.
    European banks: Operating struggles and some external headwindsoverlay
    January 15, 2019
    Talking Point
    Banks in Europe face a more difficult business environment in 2019 than last year. While the macro environment is still decent, momentum is cooling markedly. In addition, prominent political risks loom dangerously. On the operating side, banks are treading water. Their limited cost savings are being fully absorbed by declining revenues, and balance sheets continue to shrink despite a moderate pickup in lending. Profitability and capital levels are both stagnating. Only in a benign economic and political scenario will banks be able to return to growth this year.
    European Parliament elections 2019: The next “battle for Europe”?overlay
    October 24, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Accelerated by the consequences of the financial/economic and migration crisis, the influence of anti-European, anti-migration movements with a populist playbook in the EU is growing. For the EU, the next crucial stocktaking of voters’ sentiment will be the 2019 elections for the European Parliament on 23-26 May. The European political landscape and with it the composition of national parliaments in the EU member states has changed over the last five years and in some countries substantially so. These shifts can be expected to be reflected in the next European Parliament as well, and – as already the case in the Council – impact European policymaking.
    Germany
    German robo-advisors: Rapid growth, robust performance, high costoverlay
    February 12, 2019
    Germany Monitor
    Robo-advice is a new breed in asset management. Robos’ assets under management have been growing quickly in Germany. However, the market is increasingly becoming concentrated and competitive. Robo portfolios have shown relatively robust performance recently. Yet the high costs of robo-advice in Germany are a drag on returns and may alienate potential customers. Current clients, meanwhile, are mostly middle-age, higher-income men rather than millennials.
    The R-questionoverlay
    February 5, 2019
    Focus Germany
    Given much weaker than expected January business surveys and in particular the slump in their more forward-looking components we are now expecting the German economy to contract again in Q1 2019. Due to the yet unknown Q4 GDP outcome and its contradictory signals we currently refrain from formally revising our 1% GDP forecast lower again, but are expecting to shave off several tenths of a percentage point come February 22nd, unless the Statistical Offices Q4 GDP breakdown – and the new monthly data available by then – provide us with substantial positive surprises. While a technical recession might be avoided by a hair’s breadth with a positive Q4 number, the development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.
    German industry: Growth in investment spending driven by only a few factorsoverlay
    January 30, 2019
    Germany Monitor
    During the current cyclical upswing, which started in 2010, German manufacturing companies have increased their real gross capital expenditure by just above 3% p.a. In 2017, the industry accounted for 51% of total other capital spending (intellectual property) in Germany. This shows that manufacturing is the most important driver of research and development and thus of technical progress. The automotive and the pharmaceutical industries stand out from other sectors. The capital stock in energy-intensive industries has been shrinking for years now – a trend that gives cause for concern. While the German manufacturing industry is faced with long-term challenges, we believe that it is nevertheless sufficiently adaptable to remain competitive on a global scale.
    Thematic
    FX Cookbook: A Recipe for Systematic Investing in Currency Marketsoverlay
    January 16, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Deutsche Bank Research launches the twentieth edition of the Quantcraft series, a one of a kind deep dive into new trading and analytical models across different asset classes. It helps clients understand structural drivers of market returns and how to systematically extract value from them. The latest report focusses on foreign exchange. Not only does it assess the sensitivity of global currency returns to pertinent drivers including sentiment, valuations, monetary policy and interest rate differentials, but it also guides the investor on how to use those drivers to make economically rewarding decisions. Our research targets all investors involved in foreign exchange, from the corporate treasurer seeking to efficiently manage currency risk to the institutional investor building absolute return strategies.
    Contagion: Italy and the role of fiscal similarityoverlay
    November 15, 2018
    Thematic Research
    Tensions in financial markets have increased significantly since the populist/Eurosceptic Five Star/League in Italy took power in May and presented a budget in violation of EU rules. In an unprecedented move, the European Commission sent Rome back to the drawing board. Italy has now provided the Commission with its latest fiscal plan – which is not much different from the old plan.
    Cyclical vs structural: observing the unobservableoverlay
    October 31, 2018
    Thematic Research
    The workhorse framework of macroeconomics and monetary policy relies on the build-up of inflationary pressures across the cycle as the economy tightens, and firms have no choice but to raise wages, which ultimately lifts consumer prices. Within that narrative, the estimation of slack in the economy – the output gap – is crucial to monetary policy authorities. A positive output gap means that the economy is away from its long-term steady-state equilibrium, and unsustainable cost pressures are building up. Currently, the OECD / IMF / European Commission estimate of the output gap in the euro-area is slightly positive and reaching close to 1% by the end of next year.
    The House View
    At the crossroadsoverlay
    February 8, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, German/EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Outlook for 2019: Growth to plateau, but not collapseoverlay
    December 20, 2018
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's outlook for 2019 . Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, trade war etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    US keeping solid global growth aliveoverlay
    November 15, 2018
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (US election, Brexit, Italy, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Konzept
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
    Automation – not a job killeroverlay
    June 6, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us.
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