Top thematic ideas for H2
Luke Templeman
In this episode
In this episode Luke Templeman provides a brief summary of the teams’ top thematic ideas for the rest of the year.
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What we discuss
- In 2023 several market assumptions have been turned upside down.
- In January some of the biggest consensus trades were: long energy, China, and the dollar; short US equities, particularly tech.
- Consensus H1 trades failed, we believe, because investors underestimated how the thematic drivers of markets have become more important as inflation has receded.
- Thematic drivers include the incentives behind geopolitical tensions, the labour market, how investors are pricing in future rate cuts, and the differences between Chinese and Western economic stimulus.