1. Research
  2. Globale Suche

Kategorienfilter

841 Dokumente
23. Mai 2018
At 0.3% qoq, German GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 slowed markedly compared with 2017, when GDP rose by an average of 0.7% per quarter. Whilst this was partially attributable to temporary factors, the large number of vacancies is gradually becoming a stumbling block for the German economy. Manufacturing, in particular, has been hard hit of late, with the number of job openings in the first quarter of 2018 up by 38% on the same period a year earlier. [mehr]
23. Mai 2018
Das BIP-Wachstum in Deutschland fiel im 1. Quartal 2018 mit einem Plus von 0,3% gg. Vq. deutlich geringer aus als 2017, als das BIP im Durchschnitt um 0,7% pro Quartal zulegte. Dies lag zum Teil an temporären Einflüssen, aber die hohe Zahl nicht besetzter Stellen entwickelt sich zunehmend zu einem Hemmschuh für das Wirtschaftswachstum. Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe hat sich die Situation zuletzt besonders verschärft. Hier lag die Zahl der offenen Stellen im 1. Quartal 2018 um 38% über Vorjahresniveau. [mehr]
23. Mai 2018
Region:
QE has been a controversial policy wherever it has been implemented, including in the euro zone. With the economy having expanded at the fastest rate in a decade in 2017, the ECB has already begun to scale back its asset purchases from EUR80bn per month at the peak to EUR30bn currently. The ECB is due to make its next decision on QE this summer. Our baseline expectation is that the ECB will announce in July the intention to finish QE at the end of this year. That will be a signal to markets and the economy that it is just a matter of time before the ECB’s other controversial monetary policy – negative deposit rates – is also withdrawn. [mehr]
22. Mai 2018
Entwicklungen in den Bereichen künstlicher Intelligenz und Robotik haben weitreichende wirtschaftliche und soziopolitische Folgen, von denen einige bereits heute spürbar sind. Dennoch ist bislang schwer abzusehen, wohin uns der weitere Fortschritt in diesen Bereichen führen wird. In den Volkswirtschaften rund um den Globus wird sich die Ausbreitung von KI-Technologien und Robotik wahrscheinlich in unterschiedlicher Weise auswirken. Beispielsweise könnten wohlhabende Industrienationen ihre Produktion zunehmend wieder aus dem Ausland zurückholen. Um in wirtschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Hinsicht einen möglichst großen Nutzen zu erzielen, muss ein globaler Kompromiss zwischen dem erfolgreichen Fördern zentraler Technologien und Branchen sowie dem Vermeiden von zunehmendem Protektionismus und „Wissenskriegen“ gefunden werden. Da sich der technologische Wandel und das damit verbundene Entstehen neuer Geschäftsmodelle kaum verlangsamen dürften, ist offen, ob Regierungen und Regulierungsbehörden mit diesem Tempo Schritt halten können. [mehr]
14. Mai 2018
Developments in artificial intelligence and robotics have far-reaching economic and sociopolitical consequences, with some of them already materialising today. Still, the implications of further progress in these fields are not well understood. Economies around the world are likely to be impacted differently by the diffusion of AI technologies and robotics as wealthy industrial countries might increasingly “re-shore” production. To forge ahead and maximise the benefits for economies and societies, a balance needs to be found globally between successfully promoting key technologies and industries and avoiding the risk of rising protectionism and "knowledge wars". As the pace of technological change and the related launch of new business models are unlikely to slow, the ability of the state and regulators to keep pace is challenged. [mehr]
10. Mai 2018
The Panmunjom Declaration by the two Koreas reiterates their earlier calls not only for a permanent peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but also for economic cooperation as set forth in the 2007 Declaration. The latter identifies various infrastructure projects that would see South Korea integrated into the Eurasian continent through North Korea. These could result in significant cuts to South Korea's transportation and fuel costs. Moreover, broader economic cooperation between the two Koreas would give South Korea access not only to North Korea's cheap, literate, and highly organized labor but also its vast natural resources. Although the Panmunjom Declaration also calls for disarmament of the two Koreas, any significant progress in this area, as well as in broader economic cooperation, depends on a potential US-NK nuclear deal. Given past experience, the negotiation and implementation of a US-NK agreement is likely to take many months at least. In this report, we discuss potential benefits that South Korea could enjoy from economic cooperation with North Korea. [mehr]
10. Mai 2018
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [mehr]
8. Mai 2018
Weaker recent data – too early to throw in the towel, but 2018 GDP forecast cut to 2%. Although German Q1 GDP growth now looks like reaching around ¼% qoq, we still expect some positive payback in Q2, as some temporary factors depressing activity should disappear. Corporate investment spending will be key for growth in the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, signals from proxy indicators have become somewhat mixed recently too. Notwithstanding a likely, albeit limited, Q2 rebound in activity, the strong drop in the expectations' component of the ifo business climate suggests that we have probably passed the peak in qoq growth rates in the current cycle. Due to the weaker Q1 we have lowered our GDP forecast for 2018 from 2.3% to 2.0%. (Also included in this issue: industrial producer and import prices, labour migration, fiscal policy) [mehr]
8. Mai 2018
Schwächere Daten sind noch kein Grund, das Handtuch zu werfen, trotzdem haben wir unsere BIP-Prognose auf 2% gesenkt. Deutschlands BIP dürfte im ersten Quartal um rund ¼% gg. Vq. gestiegen sein. Wir rechnen mit einer wenn auch begrenzten Gegenbewegung in Q2. Im restlichen Jahresverlauf wird das Wachstum entscheidend von den Unternehmensinvestitionen abhängen. Allerdings sind die Signale der Frühindikatoren hier eher uneinheitlich ausgefallen. Der merkliche Rückgang der Erwartungskomponente des ifo-Index deutet darauf hin, dass die Quartalswachstumsraten im laufenden Zyklus ihren Höchststand überschritten haben. Daher haben wir unsere Wachstumsprognose für das Gesamtjahr von 2,3% auf 2% gesenkt. (Weitere Themen in dieser Ausgabe: Erzeuger- und Importpreise in der Industrie, Arbeitsmigration, EZB) [mehr]