Talking point
Weak investment in the healthcare system
Since around 2009, the German healthcare system has been characterised by weak investment. One reason is that public subsidies for the sector have been reduced. This development harbours risks, for only a regular renewal of medical appliances and equipment is likely to ensure the high quality of treatment in Germany in the long term. By contrast, lower investments in the building stock would primarily mean a reduction in the current hospital overcapacities. [more]
Focus Germany: German exporters facing strong headwind despite softer euro
The combination of the structural global trade slowdown, increased localization of production, demographic changes in Germany, the impact of recent economic policy decisions and further toughening of international competition are likely to be a considerable challenge for German exporters over the medium term. Thus, the domestic economy will play a bigger role again. Government policies can help ease the transition. German exporters could become even more globally active firms over the medium term. The specific reactions will vary by sector, though. The earnings generated by these firms around the globe are likely to be a blessing for an aging and more domestically driven economy in the decades ahead. [more]
Hot off the press
China rebalancing: Blessing and curse for Latin America
China is undergoing a rebalancing of its growth model. In the process, real GDP growth has started to decline and the economy is gearing for a higher share of domestic consumption and services and a lower share of investment. As a consequence, the composition of Chinese commodity imports is likely to change, with a slowdown in the demand for base metals and oil for instance, and an increase in the demand for foodstuffs and natural gas. Latin American countries are among the top suppliers of commodities to China, and, in turn, China is a key market for them. Chile and Venezuela are the economies most exposed to China’s economic rebalancing given their concentration on copper and oil, respectively, while Uruguay is likely to benefit the most as a food exporter.  [more]
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