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December 19, 2019
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European banks continue to strive to not fall further behind. Revenues and costs in the first three quarters of 2019 were flat compared to their levels a year ago. Remarkably, interest income rose despite even lower interest rates. Loan loss provisions edged up from record lows. Net profits fell moderately but remained solid. Balance sheet growth was the strongest in years as banks fight to hold their ground against an array of new competitors. Along with the struggle to improve revenues, 2020 may be shaped by Basel IV implementation, continuing geopolitical risk and a fragile macroeconomy. [more]
December 18, 2019
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ETFs have gained in popularity among private investors who have expanded their ETF investment multiple times in recent years to approximately EUR 35 bn. Nonetheless, ETFs remain a niche product for private investors considering that their total mutual fund assets amount to EUR 622 bn. ETFs have been introduced as passive investment vehicles, but active ETF management is on the rise. The sustained low-interest rate environment could allow ETFs to tap into new client segments. In Q3, loans to German households were up by a record EUR 17.9 bn qoq, driven by a record surge of EUR 16.3 bn in mortgages. Deposits grew by EUR 13.6 bn – the smallest increase in seven quarters. The fact that some banks impose negative rates on deposits seems to create negative sentiment among German savers. [more]
December 17, 2019
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Analyst:
With their „European Green Deal“, the European Commission expressed an admirable ambition to be climate-neutral by 2050. Are such ambitious long-term goals good for the credibility of European climate protection policies? Especially when they include only the vaguest notions of how to get there, and when the measures for more efficient climate protection that can be implemented in the short-to-medium term are not making sufficient progress? I don’t think so. [more]
December 10, 2019
Looking back on the decade just gone, the biggest developments in politics has been a backlash against: globalisation and immigration. Also, we have seen the rise of movements seeking to reassert the primacy of the nation state. Although these trends were not anticipated a decade ago, the signs were clearly there. [more]
December 4, 2019
Many ‘decade ahead’ predictions prove unreliable. And we admit this special edition of Konzept cannot be a perfect crystal ball. Regardless, we present 24 contrarian ideas for how the 2020s may evolve because we believe it is best to be prepared for the unexpected themes that may arise over the coming decade. After all, if the 2010s have taught us anything it is that the trends of the prior decade are no guide for the decade to come. [more]
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