1. Research
  2. Globale Suche
1364 (31-40)
11. Mai 2020
Die Corona-Krise hat die Weltwirtschaft hart getroffen, was sich auch in unserem jüngsten Prognose-Update niederschlägt. In vielen Ländern ist das BIP bereits im 1. Quartal deutlich geschrumpft. Der weit größere Einbruch dürfte aber erst im 2. Quartal kommen. Wir diskutieren in dem heutigen Call unter anderem die aktuelle Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Europa, den USA und China und richten den Blick auf die am Freitag zur Veröffentlichung anstehenden Q1-Zahlen zum deutschen BIP. In den USA und China geben in dieser Woche die April-Zahlen zu den Einzelhandelsumsätzen und zur Industrieproduktion erste Einblicke zur weiteren Wirtschaftsentwicklung im 2. Quartal. [mehr]
8. Mai 2020
Weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data point to a lower trough in economic activity than assumed so far. We now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% qoq, with the risks still skewed to the downside. In the 2009 recession, private consumption acted as a massive shock absorber. Given the lockdown, social distancing and a likely severe hit to income expectations, we expect private consumption to fall by 10% in 2020. The asynchronous global development of the COVID-19 pandemic and lasting impediments to global trade, will make the recovery, which began in May and will become more evident in H2, less dynamic than hoped for earlier. As a result, we expect German GDP to decline by 9% this year and to expand by about 4% in 2021. [mehr]
5. Mai 2020
Due to the coronavirus, production in the manufacturing sector in Germany is expected to fall by roughly 10% to 15% in real terms in 2020. Society and business will learn to live with the coronavirus and weigh up health, social and economic risks in the process. In 2021, industrial production could rise by more than 10% in real terms on average over the course of the year. However, overall we see a risk that Germany may become less attractive as an industrial location over the coming years. Policymakers and industrial companies are likely to view the crisis surrounding the coronavirus as an opportunity to make important political decisions and get structural reforms off the ground, as they should. [mehr]
5. Mai 2020
The corona crisis is currently overshadowing all other aspects of the German property market. On the assumption of a strong recovery in the second half of the year structural issues will return to the foreground and the pandemic will slow down, but not bring an end to the German property cycle. In this report we look into both the negative effects of the crisis and fundamental factors and assess the outcome for the German house and office market. A flight to safety and the potential increased immigration could have a positive impact in the medium term. [mehr]
4. Mai 2020
Region:
During March, the first month in which the coronavirus pandemic made itself felt in Europe, banks' balance sheets grew substantially. On the one hand, euro-area banks raised enormous amounts of liquidity from the ECB, other financial corporations and non-financial companies. On the other, they just kept a large part of that at the central bank or lent it to other banks and other financial corporations. In addition, banks extended markedly more credit to non-financial firms which likewise stacked up their liquidity buffers to prepare for weaker cash flows as a result of the looming massive recession. The crisis so far had no major impact on banks’ retail business and their holdings of government bonds. [mehr]
4. Mai 2020
It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist, US explains. [mehr]
6.4.5