Nearly all the nations of southern Europe were able to welcome more air travellers from Germany in 2012 than in 2005. The tourism sector thus proved to be relatively resistant to the crisis. Of the major holiday destinations in southern Europe only Greece was forced to accept a decline in the number of visitors from Germany during this period. [more]

In January the Japanese central bank raised its inflation target from 1% to 2%. At his first central bank meeting in April, the new governor surprise BoJ watchers with considerably more aggressive monetary easing than had been expected. This change of monetary regime is seen as a risk for other export nations – notably Germany. However, such concern is only partly justified for Germany. [more]

German industry still has to work its way out of the trough this year. After sending promising signals at the start of the year surveys have turned south again eroding hope for a strong upswing in H1. Still, faint indications of a recovery in several early-cycle sectors and slightly improved prospects for key export markets outside EMU suggest that industrial growth might recover during the course of the year. Still, we expect annual average manufacturing output to be flat in real terms. [more]

In the course of the European economic crisis the markets outside the European Monetary Union have become more important for German exporters. In 2012, 62.5% of all German exports went to non-EMU countries. Back in 2000 this share was just under 55%. Since then, China has rapidly gained in importance. China is gathering momentum again as an export market this year (GDP forecast 2013: +8.2% yoy). However, the Chinese government is aiming for slightly slower GDP growth in the future (approx. 7%) than it did in the past decade. The trading partners will have to adjust their business to these more moderate dynamics. However, the market's key structural growth factors should remain intact: infrastructure development and the boosting of consumption will benefit suppliers from the relevant sectors. [more]