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Globale Suche


1111 Dokumente
21. Mai 2019
Digital taxation is currently a subject of intense debate and since large digital companies are widely thought to pay inappropriately low taxes, policymakers remain under pressure to act. However, all approaches which are based on the taxation of revenues instead of profits have major flaws. As digital services expand into ever new areas of the economy (‘smart everything’), the risk of a far-reaching, arbitrary taxation of entrepreneurial activities is increasing. Disruption, the buzzword of the digitalisation discussions, may become an issue in international tax policy, too. In addition to an (international) digital tax, minimum taxes are one of the concepts under discussion. [mehr]
20. Mai 2019
This edition of Focus Germany has quite a lot but rather short articles. We are taking stock of the German economy after Q1’s surprisingly strong growth. We expect the economy to flatline in Q2 and foresee an only subdued recovery in H2 given the recent flare-up of several geopolitical hotspots, rather than their hoped for de-escalation. We cross-check this analysis with deep dives into the auto and the mechanical engineering sector. We look at the impossible trinity of Germany’s fiscal policy (tax cuts, higher social expenditures and the black zero) and peek into the difficulties finance ministers are facing in the digital economy. We discuss to what extent the upcoming EP and Länder elections might spell more trouble for the Groko and introduce our new German financial conditions index. [mehr]
17. Mai 2019
Diese Ausgabe des Ausblicks Deutschland besteht aus einer Reihe eher kurzer Beiträge. Wir fühlen den Pulsschlag der deutschen Konjunktur nach dem überraschend starken ersten Quartal. Dieser ist weiterhin flach, das BIP dürfte im zweiten Quartal stagnieren und auch im zweiten Halbjahr dürfte das Wachstum eher kraftlos bleiben. Dieser Befund wird durch weitere detaillierte Analysen der Automobilindustrie und des Maschinenbaus bestätigt. Wir beschreiben das Trilemma der deutschen Fiskalpolitik bestehend aus Forderungen nach Steuersenkungen sowie nach höheren Sozialausgaben bei gleichzeitiger Einhaltung der „Schwarzen Null“ und werfen einen Blick auf die Probleme, mit denen Finanzminister in der Digitalwirtschaft konfrontiert werden. Außerdem stellen wir unseren neuen „Financial Conditions Index“ für Deutschland vor und schauen auf die Zinspolitik der EZB. [mehr]
17. Mai 2019
The 8th annual survey of global prices and living standards from various countries and cities around the world is out! In this podcast Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research, highlights the cities that have seen the biggest change not only over the last year but also over the last five years. [mehr]
15. Mai 2019
Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced. [mehr]
15. Mai 2019
For both environmental and economic reasons, a carbon tax would be superior to the current patchwork of subsidies and regulatory law (standards, bans, caps, quotas etc.) which characterises climate policy. However, the tax has a key disadvantage: while it sets a price for carbon emissions, it does not set a cap. That is why emissions trading is even superior to a carbon tax. Despite the convincing advantages of market-based in-struments, a fundamental re-orientation of German and European climate policy unfortunately appears unlikely. Instead, existing instruments will probably be adapted again and again once their negative side effects become too obvious. This will make climate policy less efficient than it could be and more expensive than necessary. [mehr]
14. Mai 2019
Eine CO₂-Steuer wäre aus ökologischer und ökonomischer Sicht dem bisherigen klimapolitischen Sammelsurium aus Subventionen und Ordnungsrecht (Gebote, Verbote, Grenzwerte, Quoten usw.) überlegen. Der entscheidende Nachteil einer CO₂-Steuer liegt darin, dass sie zwar den Preis für CO₂ festsetzt, aber keine Obergrenze für Emissionen umfasst. Hier ist der Emissionshandel einer CO₂-Steuer überlegen. Trotz der überzeugenden Vorteile marktwirtschaftlicher Instrumente ist zu befürchten, dass eine grundsätzliche Neuausrichtung der Klimaschutzpolitik in Deutschland und der EU ausbleiben wird. Stattdessen dürften bestehende Instrumente immer dann angepasst werden, wenn negative Begleiterscheinungen zu offensichtlich werden. In Summe bleibt die Klimaschutzpolitik damit weniger effektiv als möglich und teurer als nötig. [mehr]
13. Mai 2019
The German logistics sector has continued to increase its overall turnover, despite the industrial recession. Logistics, one of the biggest sectors in Germany, seems to have decoupled from the industry to some extent. This is quite unusual. However, revenue growth in the logistics sector is supported by several developments: the boom in construction, a larger number of smaller deliveries due to the uptrend in e-commerce, the growing importance of value-added services and price effects. Nevertheless, the industrial recession is likely to have an impact on the logistics sector in the first half of 2019. We expect nominal revenues in the sector to stag-nate or even decline during the first half of 2019. [mehr]