October 15, 2012
After a homeopathic cut in its WEO July update the IMF reduced its German 2013 GDP forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 0.9% in October (2012: 0.9%). German research institutes even cut their forecasts by half to 1% compared to their spring report (2012: 0.8%). Our View: We have maintained all along that forecasts have been too optimistic. Back in spring we were on record with our 1% for 2013 forecast, which we have cut marginally to 0.8% lately. While the IMF expects the same growth rate for 2012 and 2013, the institutes actually expect a small increase. However, monthly data so far points to a still stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP, while forward indicators such as orders, ifo or the still sub-par PMI point to stagnation or worse in the winter half. This would imply a growth rate close to 1% in the current year, but a drop to the vicinity of ½% in 2013 – even assuming a decent recovery from spring onwards.
© Copyright 2013. Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D-60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “Deutsche Bank Research”.
The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made.
In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Limited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.