October 15, 2012
After a homeopathic cut in its WEO July update the IMF reduced its German 2013 GDP forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 0.9% in October (2012: 0.9%). German research institutes even cut their forecasts by half to 1% compared to their spring report (2012: 0.8%). Our View: We have maintained all along that forecasts have been too optimistic. Back in spring we were on record with our 1% for 2013 forecast, which we have cut marginally to 0.8% lately. While the IMF expects the same growth rate for 2012 and 2013, the institutes actually expect a small increase. However, monthly data so far points to a still stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP, while forward indicators such as orders, ifo or the still sub-par PMI point to stagnation or worse in the winter half. This would imply a growth rate close to 1% in the current year, but a drop to the vicinity of ½% in 2013 – even assuming a decent recovery from spring onwards.
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16.05.2013
