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European Parliament elections 2019: The next “battle for Europe”?

24. Oktober 2018
Accelerated by the consequences of the financial/economic and migration crisis, the influence of anti-European, anti-migration movements with a populist playbook in the EU is growing. For the EU, the next crucial stocktaking of voters’ sentiment will be the 2019 elections for the European Parliament on 23-26 May. The European political landscape and with it the composition of national parliaments in the EU member states has changed over the last five years and in some countries substantially so. These shifts can be expected to be reflected in the next European Parliament as well, and – as already the case in the Council – impact European policymaking. [mehr]

Weitere Dokumente zum Thema "Europa"

178 Dokumente
4. Juni 2019
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant step forward in the digitalisation and transformation of modern businesses. Investors are lining up to be part of the imminent change. AI attracted USD 24 bn in investments globally in 2018, a twelvefold increase since 2013. Within Europe, Germany, France and the UK are the frontrunners in experimentation and in the implementation of AI. Similar to earlier examples of information technology (IT) implementation in financial services, AI promises great efficiency gains and potential revenue increases and its potential contribution to bank profitability should not be underestimated. [mehr]
23. Mai 2019
Results from the 23-26 May EU elections will not be published before late Sunday evening, final numbers not before Monday morning. Polls continue to indicate a loss of the conservatives' and social democrats' traditional majority while right-wing and left-wing Eurosceptics could gain more than 35% of the seats in the next EP. We do not expect any Council decisions on the next Commission President and other key positions before the June 20-21 summit. But negotiations between leaders on the EU's top jobs could last much longer and also a lengthy standoff between the Council and Parliament over the "Spitzenkandidaten" procedure cannot be excluded. [mehr]
23. Mai 2019
Shrinkage – and no end in sight: in the first quarter of the year, the European banks once more saw revenues and costs alike decline compared to 12 months ago (-2% each). Non-interest income was particularly weak. As a result, profitability dipped, with loan loss provisions also rising, albeit from very low levels. Banks tried to make up for the revenue loss by taking more risk and expanding their balance sheets. Total assets and risk-weighted assets both increased by 4%. Consequently, the average CET1 capital ratio fell 0.4 pp yet remained in comfortable territory. [mehr]
6. Mai 2019
The May European Parliament elections could see Germany's conservative CDU/CSU and Social Democrats lose a substantial share of votes compared to the last round in 2014, whereas the Greens could overtake the SPD and become the second strongest party. Compared to European peers, the appeal of the far-right AfD to German voters remains far more limited. Still, the AfD could expand its share and rank fourth, followed by the Liberals and the far-left Leftist party. Shifts of voters' support between centrist parties will not have a substantial impact on Germany's generally pro-European stance. However, these parties still represent different views on the future of the EU, e.g. regarding further EMU deepening. [mehr]
2. Mai 2019
Die Digitalsteuer wird heiß debattiert und angesichts weithin als unzureichend empfundener Steuerzahlungen großer Konzerne der Digitalwirtschaft dürfte der Handlungsdruck für die Politik groß bleiben. Aber alle Ansätze, die auf Besteuerung der Erträge bzw. Umsätze statt der Gewinne zielen, weisen gravierende Mängel auf. Angesichts der Expansion digitaler Dienste – Stichwort: ‚smart everything‘ – besteht die Gefahr, dass Einfallstore für umfassende, willkürliche Besteuerung unternehmerischer Aktivitäten entstehen. Disruption, der Kernbegriff der Digitalisierungsdebatte, könnte auch für die internationale Steuerpolitik gelten. Unter den Konzepten für ein erweitertes Regelwerk sind neben einer (internationalen) Digitalsteuer Mindeststeuern ins Blickfeld gerückt. [mehr]
11. April 2019
Soft and hard EU(ro)sceptic as well as anti-establishment parties could account for one-quarter up to one-third of the seats in the next EP, according to our updated poll-based projections. We have doubts about whether Eurosceptic and nationalistic groups in the EP will be able to overcome their previous discrepancies and build a significantly more united bloc. However, even without a joint agenda, Eurosceptics could make coalition building (as on the national level) much more complex and increasingly split the next EP into two camps. [mehr]
2. April 2019
Der 3D-Druck von Maschinen- und sonstigen Industriebauteilen, auch additive Fertigung genannt, hat das Potenzial, den digitalen Wandel weiter zu beschleunigen. Das größte 3D-Wachstumstempo dürften die Medizintechnik, Luft- und Raumfahrt sowie der Einzelhandel erzielen. 3D beschränkt sich vorerst oftmals auf Anwendungen in der Nische, aber mittels 3D könnten zum Beispiel Autoproduzenten in einigen Jahren kundenindividuelle Fahrzeuge direkt am Auslieferungsort fertigen. Risiken wie Produkthaftung oder Schutz geistigen Eigentums verdienen infolge der steigenden 3D-Marktpenetration mehr Beachtung. Per Saldo ist aber ein dynamischer 3D-Fortschritt zu erwarten. [mehr]
28. März 2019
Die EZB hat auf ihrer jüngsten Ratssitzung am 7. März 2019 beschlossen, die Geldpolitik weiterhin extrem expansiv auszurichten. So hat sie angekündigt, ihre Leitzinsen nunmehr bis mindestens Ende 2019 auf den derzeit sehr niedrigen Niveaus zu halten – zuvor galt diese Zusicherung nur bis „über den Sommer hinaus“. Ebenso hat sie nochmals bekräftigt, ihren hohen Bestand an EWU-Staatsanleihen, der zwischen März 2015 und Ende Dezember 2018 aufgebaut wurde, auf unabsehbare Zeit aufrechtzuerhalten. Somit müssen sämtliche zur Rückzahlung fällige Assets aus dem APP-Programm (Asset Purchase Programme) reinvestiert werden, so auch jene Staatsanleihen aus dem PSPP-Portfolio (Public Sector Purchase Programme). Dies dürfte also noch einige Zeit die Nachfrage nach EWU-Staatsanleihen stützen und deren Renditen nach unten drücken. [mehr]
28. Februar 2019
In 2018, net income at the major European banks climbed to its highest level since the financial crisis. Lower administrative expenses and a further fall in loan loss provisions to multi-year lows more than made up for a decline in revenues. Whereas net interest income stabilised, fee and commission income as well as trading income declined. Banks took a bit more risk, and risk-weighted assets edged up. Total capital remained flat despite higher profits as banks increased returns to shareholders and implemented the new IFRS 9 accounting standard. Consequently, capital ratios declined for the first time since 2008. The gap between European banks and their US peers remained huge as the latter benefited from higher interest rates and lower corporate taxes. [mehr]
28. Februar 2019
The outcome of the EU elections and the composition of the new Parliament will significantly influence the nomination and election of the next President of the European Commission (EC). Parliament will vote for the Council's proposed candidate in a secret ballot with a majority of component MEPs required. The election of the Commission President will be particularly challenging this year. Given the projected new balance of power after the elections both within the EP and within the Council as well as between the EP and the EU Council, an institutional stalemate cannot be ruled out. [mehr]
13. Februar 2019
Ahead of the May 23–26 European Parliament elections, the EU is surrounded by internal and external challenges, its leaders increasingly divided, and its integrity and credibility challenged by Eurosceptic and anti-European groups across the continent. An extension of Article 50 could push the Brexit date close to or even beyond the European elections. Under EU treaties the UK would then be required to participate in the vote. The implications for the next EP – both if the UK agreed and refused to hold elections – could bear risks for the unanimity required in the European Council for an extension of Article 50 beyond the election date. [mehr]
11. Februar 2019
Die Digitalisierung verspricht große Wohlstandsgewinne, droht jedoch die Ungleichheiten zu erhöhen. Die Folgen einer großen Automatisierungswelle bzw. zunehmend kapitalintensiveren Produktion wären ein Rückgang der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lohnquote und steigende Unternehmens- und Vermögenseinkommen. Unsere Szenario-Analyse für die EU-Staaten zeigt, dass die europäischen Sozialstaaten bei einem automatisierungsbedingten Beschäftigungsrückgang im Durchschnitt mit einer deutlichen Finanzierungslücke zu kämpfen hätten. Angesichts der ungewissen Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf die Arbeitsnachfrage und die Staatsfinanzen sollten Staat und Gesellschaft vorsorgen, u.a. über eine Stärkung der Bildungspolitik und eine Anpassung des internationalen Steuersystems an die Begebenheiten des 21. Jahrhunderts, insbesondere im Bereich der Unternehmensbesteuerung. [mehr]