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Marked decline in the German labour force despite substantial immigration
Dieter BräuningerMarc Schattenberg
In Germany, a decline in the labour force is inevitable.
In Germany, a decline in the labour force is inevitable. This can be seen from the recently published official 14th population projection. In this projection, the Federal Statistical Office took into account the past years‘ massive immigration. The impact is impressive. In the next few years, the number of inhabitants will increase by about 1 million to approx. 84 million – a new record high. Under plausible assumptions regarding future immigration (i.e. in the volume close to the past 20-year average – 268.000 p.a.) this number will decrease only slightly in the next two decades. [more]
Since the height of the financial crisis at the end of 2008, the use of different debt finance instruments by companies in the euro area has been diverging remarkably: whereas the outstanding volume of traditional bank loans has fallen by about EUR 360 bn on aggregate (-7.4%), net issuance of corporate bonds (i.e. long-term debt securities) has amounted to almost exactly the same cumulative (but positive) figure over the same period of time (a rise by 63%). [more]
Over the past ten years banks in Germany attracted over EUR 900 bn in new deposits from German households and businesses. This increased the market volume by nearly 50% vis-à-vis 2002. Today, public-sector banks hold 37% of total deposits, commercial banks one-third and cooperative banks roughly 20%. [more]
For the first time in at least a decade, all major revenue components at the 20 largest European banks declined simultaneously. Apart from trading income (-24%), the decrease was modest (interest income -0.5%, fees & commissions -1%) yet the looming challenge for banks’ business models has finally become crystal clear: there is no obvious driver for future growth. [more]
Last year, banks provided new syndicated loans of a gross global total of USD 1.6 tr, a drop by 41% yoy, following a similar decline in 2008 already. New lending thus reached a 10-year low, despite having doubled between 2003 and 2007... [more]
The global banking system has undergone a fundamental shift of power for years – away from traditionally dominating financial institutions from the US, Europe and Japan towards banks in the emerging markets. [more]
In modern economies the financial industry is one of the most important sectors. In terms of gross value-added, it ranks third in Germany for example, even ahead of mechanical and electrical engineering. [more]