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Surveying slower growth

June 21, 2019
Read on for our recap of the evolving macro outlook and the shifting trends in monetary policy. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views. [more]

More documents about "International"

151 (73-84)
September 18, 2017
73
Unlike the last few years, this summer was relatively quiet. As markets look ahead to the rest of the year, the key theme will continue to be the major central banks’ tentative progress toward removing monetary accommodation. Investors have so far not priced in this outlook. Since the prospects for growth across all the major countries is better than it has been for some time it remains a puzzle why there hasn't been a greater sell-off in bond markets. [more]
August 10, 2017
Analyst:
74
Robo-advisors are online investment platforms that use computer algorithms to manage client portfolios and are thus part of the FinTech universe. With their user-friendly, automated and low-cost services, robo-advisors pose a challenge to traditional financial advisory services and are growing fast. Online client onboarding is the most crucial step in this process, relying on questionnaires to figure out clients' preferences. Following a conservative approach in their asset selection, robo-advisors mainly invest in ETFs. Portfolio allocation is done via mean-variance optimisation and threshold-based rebalancing is utilised to maintain targeted asset weights. Wealthier and more educated clients are joining millennials as robo-advisory clients. Fees are considerably higher in the EU than in the US where robo-advisors’ AuM are much larger. Robo-advisors can contribute to financial inclusion, while their long-term success relies on a high degree of accuracy and suitability for clients. [more]
July 25, 2017
75
As markets enter into the summer lull, it is useful to take a step back. The global economy is in better shape than it has been in several years. This has allowed other central banks to follow the Fed and gradually start their exit journey, a process that is a historic challenge given the unprecedented level of monetary accommodation. But with inflation still below target, a key part of the normalisation puzzle is still missing. [more]
June 22, 2017
Analyst:
76
With the growing use of digital payments, the need for physical cash is no longer self-evident. But: Demand for euro cash is on the rise. Euro cash in circulation tripled between 2003 and 2016 to EUR 1.2 trillion and thus, grew faster than GDP at current prices. It is estimated that euro cash is used for domestic payments, hoarded for saving purposes and held outside the euro area at roughly equal parts. [more]
May 5, 2017
77
Growth in global trade almost stagnated at just 1.3% in 2016, and in some months was even negative. During winter, global trade picked up again, rising by around 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Given the positive sentiment prevailing across the globe, this rebound could well continue. However, this trend is not yet being fully reflected in other hard economic indicators, usually highly correlated with global trade, and sentiment may therefore overstate the actual trend a little. Still, our simple model of world trade, which suggests moderate growth of just over 2% in 2017 and around 3% in 2018 might represent the lower limit of the forecast range. However, compared to previous cycles the upturn could remain weak, not least because of the global trade restrictions that have been progressively ratcheted up since 2008. [more]
April 25, 2017
Analyst:
78
Politics remain a key focus for markets, but the latest developments in Europe are positive. In France, the first round of the presidential election ruled out the least market-friendly ‎outcome, and although eurosceptic Marine Le Pen is in the run-off as expected, polls suggest reformist Macron should win. The snap election called in Britain for June is a material positive game-changer for Brexit negotiations. [more]
March 30, 2017
Analyst:
79
Decarbonisation initiatives to halve global emissions will dictate how much certain industries can produce over the coming decades. DeCAF – Deutsche Bank’s Carbon Alignment Framework – is a new investment approach which recognises that the volume goals of policymakers and value goals of investors are not necessarily aligned. [more]
November 23, 2016
Analyst:
80
Despite a growing role of electronic payments, demand for cash is on the rise in Europe. Euro cash in circulation has increased to EUR 1.1 trillion, three times as much as in 2003. Cash limits the power of monetary authorities, provides data protection and can therefore act as a guarantor of civil liberties. On the other hand, it is often associated with a stronger shadow economy, even though the shift towards a cashless society seems to trigger higher levels of card fraud. [more]
May 24, 2016
Analyst:
84
The tremendous growth momentum in high-frequency trading seems to have reached its limits in recent years. The increasing cost of infrastructure and relentless competition within the industry are probably the first to blame. In addition, high-frequency trading firms are hardly participating in those dark pools where large block transactions are executed. Both trends are challenging their business model and trading strategies as high-frequency traders have seen their revenues and profits erode. Furthermore, forthcoming tighter prudential regulatory oversight may lead to an overhang of capacity in the high-frequency trading industry. [more]
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